895
FXUS63 KLMK 270547
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
147 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
* A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. A SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH LATER THURSDAY
STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 922 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN, WITH A DIFFLUENT NORTHERLY WIND FIELD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE STRATUS DECK WHICH HAS LINGERED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
OVER THE PAST 18-24 HOURS HAS CLEARED THE BLUEGRASS REGION, THOUGH
SOME LOW-MID LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY AT THIS
HOUR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR WORKS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE SFC HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. THERE SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND GOING ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH VALLEYS AND OTHER SHELTERED AREAS COULD GO
CALM. BECAUSE OF THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN, FOG IS GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVELY-ASSISTED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS. WHILE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAWN TOMORROW AND SOME LIGHT RETURNS
MAY SHOW UP ON RADAR, DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS COOL SPOTS IN THE BLUEGRASS TO NEAR
50 FROM BOWLING GREEN POINTS SOUTH AND WEST.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, WITH MINOR
CHANGES TO NEAR TERM T/TD BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BLUEGRASS. KY MESONET OBS SHOW TEMPERATURES AS OF
1430L EDT REACHING NEAR 70 ACROSS THE KY/TN BORDER WHILE AREAS UNDER
CLOUD COVER HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH THE MID 50S. GOES-16 SATELLITE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SLOW DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS LAYER, SO STILL
EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES BY THIS EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY TOMORROW REACHING A ZENITH OF AROUND 1025MB. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY WINDS TOMORROW, THOUGH UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CIRRUS RESULTING IN
FILTERED SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 60S, SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT BRINGING DRY AND QUIET WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO USHER IN
MOISTURE. DEW POINTS SHOULD RAISE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOW 60S ON
MONDAY.
DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEAST
DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING, BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR POPS.
MONDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN CANADA BRINGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER OH
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE AS
TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SWINGS THROUGH. THE LOWER OH VALLEY
IS IN A TRICKY SPOT ON TUESDAY, AS IT IS BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.
SOME GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD
OVER THE REGION AND SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS RIDGING SINKING SOUTH.
EITHER WAY, DECAYING CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BETTER FORCING WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WITH THE TROUGH AND UPPER JET. THE LLJ MAY JUST BRUSH
SOUTHERN INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-30KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND AMPLE INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, STORMS
SEEM TO APPROACH THE REGION IN THE EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY IS
WANING. THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO WARRANT A CONCERN FOR SEVERE
STORMS OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA TUESDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, THIS IS CONDITIONAL ON THE TIMING
AND THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDING OVERHEAD.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND STALL. WHAT HAPPENS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DETERMINE THE OUTCOME
OF WEDNESDAY. IF THE RIDGING HOLDS AND THE COLD FRONT SLOWS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION, THERE WILL LESS OF A CONCERN FOR FLOODING AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. IF RIDGING SINKS SOUTH AND STORMS MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
LATER IN THE WEEK, A SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT THE
STALLED FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION, BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
AT THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH SOUTHERN WAVE MAY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN
WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE UPPER AND
LOWER LEVEL FEATURES TRACKING CLOSER TO THE REGION, THIS RAISES A
LARGER CONCERN THAN THE MID WEEK THREAT, GIVEN FORCING PROXIMITY.
THE INCREASED SHEAR WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT.
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY (DERBY DAY)...
THE PREVIOUS FEATURES MAY PUSH OUT OF THE REGION, AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS TO OUR NORTH, BUT RETAINS CONTROL OF THE REGION.
WE'LL KEEP A LIGHT BUT STEADY ENE/NE SURFACE WIND FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING, ALONG WITH SOME BKN UPPER CLOUDS. AS WE GET INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS, LOOK FOR WINDS TO FIND A STEADY EASTERLY COMPONENT,
WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT LEX. UPPER SKY COVER
SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY LATE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WILL KEEP SOME
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AROUND. WIND SLACKEN AGAIN TONIGHT AND BECOME
MORE NE OR CALM.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...BJS
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