454
FXUS63 KLMK 270704
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
304 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
* DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
PRETTY QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS TO OUR NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN SLIDES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN. THIS IS A
DRY SETUP, ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MID
TO UPPER MOISTURE FILTERS THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS DO SHOW A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TODAY, SO ANY
RETURNS ON RADAR OFF TO OUR WEST WILL LIKELY NOT HIT THE GROUND OVER
OUR REGION.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TODAY, BUT STILL
SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. COULD GET A LITTLE WARMER,
BUT THE VARIABLE MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS COMBINED WITH A STEADY
EASTERLY SURFACE WIND HURTS CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS OVERACHIEVING TODAY.
TEMPS COOL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE STEADY EASTERLY WIND IS
LOST, AND SURFACE WINDS FIND A LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM NE COMPONENT.
VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AND COULD DROP WELL INTO THE 40S, WHILE
THE MORE COUPLED AREAS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD
THE COOLEST EASTERN VALLEYS SEE SOME UPPER 30S? THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME CHANCE. HREF PROBS LESS THAN 40F ARE AROUND 10-20% FOR THE
COOLEST SPOTS. SUPPOSE A FEW PATCHY SPOTS OF FROST CAN'T BE RULED
OUT IF WE DO DIP INTO THE 30S.
WILL ALSO MAKE ONE FINAL NOTE THAT THERE IS STILL A LOOSE SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY HEADING INTO MONDAY. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH DOWN IN THAT AREA, AND
PERHAPS SOME WEAK CONVECTION TRIGGERS ON THAT BOUNDARY. DOESN'T SEEM
TO FIT THE PATTERN WHEN YOU WOULD EXPECT TO HAVE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THERE THANKS TO THE UPPER RIDGING. AS A RESULT, WILL KEEP
A DRY FORECAST WITH LESS THAN 15% POPS, BUT WON'T RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER DOWN THERE TOWARD SUNRISE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AS A
SURFACE HIGH STRETCHES OUT ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST AND GULF COASTS,
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
STRAY SHOWER IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION WHERE THERE WILL BE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 305K SURFACE AND SOME MEAGER MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY EVENING FROM THE PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE
STORMS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND WILL POSE THE FIRST CHALLENGING
VARIABLE IN HOW THIS WEEK'S WEATHER WILL PLAY OUT IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY. HOW FAR EASTWARD THESE STORMS MAKE IT BEFORE THEY OUTRUN THE
BEST FORCING AND BUMP INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH CLOUD AND RAIN WE RECEIVE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS,
IN TURN, WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WHETHER OR NOT WE'LL HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY ISN'T THE MAIN QUESTION -- CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH IN THAT AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN JUST HOW STRONG OR SEVERE
THOSE STORMS WILL BE. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AT THE TIME OF DIURNAL MAX INSTABILITY AND AS THE COLD FRONT COMES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, REACHING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT WILL STILL BE PLENTY
ENOUGH FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. WOULD PREFER TO HAVE GREATER
CONFIDENCE THIS CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL EVENT, BUT THERE ARE STILL
SEVERAL PIECES ON THE METEOROLOGICAL CHESS BOARD THAT ARE IN PLAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE, THOUGH, IS THAT THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND FOLKS IN THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY, SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO LAY OUT IN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION
WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING OUR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH
ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. THE BOUNDARY MAY THEN LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THAT LOW'S COLD
FRONT WOULD THEN PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THESE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS, PLUS THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION, IT'S
DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WITH ANY DEGREE OF CERTAINTY JUST HOW MUCH
RAIN WILL FALL. AS IT STANDS NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE
ENOUGH OF A BREAK BETWEEN WAVES FOR SOME RECOVERY TO TAKE PLACE
BETWEEN BOUTS OF RAIN, AND WE HAVE GREENED UP NICELY WHICH WILL HELP
TO TAKE UP SOME OF THE WATER. NAEFS/HEFS/GEFS ARE NOT INDICATING A
RETURN OF RIVER FLOODING. SO, IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT
WOULD BE LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WITH HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS OR TRAINING
STORMS.
IT'S NOT A SLAM DUNK, BUT IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE MAY DRY OUT
JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SATURDAY TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS TO OUR NORTH, BUT RETAINS CONTROL OF THE REGION.
WE'LL KEEP A LIGHT BUT STEADY ENE/NE SURFACE WIND FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING, ALONG WITH SOME BKN UPPER CLOUDS. AS WE GET INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS, LOOK FOR WINDS TO FIND A STEADY EASTERLY COMPONENT,
WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT LEX. UPPER SKY COVER
SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY LATE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WILL KEEP SOME
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AROUND. WIND SLACKEN AGAIN TONIGHT AND BECOME
MORE NE OR CALM.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...BJS
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