886
FXUS63 KLMK 281706
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
106 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND TONIGHT.
* A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
* DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTH, INCREASED MOISTURE, AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE POTOMAC VALLEY RIDGING SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH WARM SOUTH SURFACE
FLOW TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC CROSS-SECTIONS AND THE CU RULE INDICATE A
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING, BUT THERE
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THAT SURFACE HIGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL STAY PUT AND
EVEN BUILD WESTWARD A BIT AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD
OF TUESDAY'S STORM SYSTEM PLUS A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE EQUALS AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM NIGHT. WILL GO ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S, WITH THE HEART OF
LOUISVILLE'S URBAN CORE POSSIBLY NOT DROPPING BELOW 70. ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS WOULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
TUESDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RETREATING EASTWARD ON TUESDAY,
ALLOWING FOR SOME INFLUENCE FROM TWO PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE MID WEEK (TUE-THUR) TIMEFRAME. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO EASTERN
CANADA ON TUESDAY, WITH THE NOTABLE SURFACE LOW DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT, WE DO EXPECT TO
GET MODERATELY UNSTABLE (2000-3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE) THANKS TO STEADY
SW FLOW AND SOME PEEKS AT THE SUN BEFORE SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE. IN
ADDITION TO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
ON THE INCREASE TO THE TUNE OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME MODEST
ORGANIZATION OF UPDRAFTS TO THE POINT WHERE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION MENTIONED BETTER FORCING OFF TO THE NE, AND THAT
REMAINS THE CASE SO NOT EXPECTING THINGS TO BE TOO WIDESPREAD, AT
LEAST INITIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A
SCENARIO WHERE IF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH, IT WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER CHAIN REACTION DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH GETS MESSY
AND CAN INCREASE COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 28/00Z MPAS-HT SEEMS TO
HINT AT THAT TYPE OF SCENARIO AS WE GET INTO LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, WITH
PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL THREAT AS WELL WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS. A
BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS WELL ESPECIALLY IF
REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW.
THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION ENDS LATER TUESDAY EVENING, WITH
PERHAPS SOME WEAKER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT AS MUCH INSTABILITY AND OVERALL WEAKER FLOW
DURING THIS TIME, SO THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS THAT COULD ADD TO
RAINFALL TOTALS A BIT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE TALLER/SKINNIER DURING
THIS STRETCH SO PERHAPS SOME MORE EFFICIENT RAINERS DURING THIS
TIME. SOMETHING TO WATCH AND NOT TOTALLY DISREGARD AS FOCUS STAYS ON
THE TUESDAY LEAD WAVE AND THURSDAY FINAL WAVE.
SPEAKING OF THE FINAL WAVE, THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE
AREA. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A SOUTHERN CONUS SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT AND
LIKELY PHASES WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS A
RESULT, WE'LL SEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER OUR AREA BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, WHICH WILL PUT US
BACK INTO SOME DEGREE OF A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT. AS A RESULT, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY PM INTO AT LEAST THE LATE EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES
LOOK A LITTLE STRONGER FOR THIS ROUND, ALBEIT STILL MOSTLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH THE COLUMN. AS A RESULT, POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WIND LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN HERE. CAN'T RULE OUT A POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT, BUT TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE DETAILS WITH
LOTS OF WEATHER TO GET THROUGH BEFORE WE GET TO THAT POINT. WE'LL
ALSO HAVE TO BE MINDFUL OF ALREADY ELEVATED RAINFALL TOTALS BEING
AGITATED BY MORE STRONG CONVECTION WITH THIS FINAL WAVE. ISOLATED
FLOOD CONCERNS WILL LIKELY REMAIN.
WE'LL BE POST-FRONTAL BY FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE PARENT
EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING. WILL KEEP SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES IN FOR
THIS TIME FRAME WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FRI.
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE GET A CLEAN TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE UNTIL LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT, WHEN WE CAN FINALLY TRANSITION TO A DRY FORECAST.
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...
WE'LL HAVE TO PAY THE PRICE THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT THE END RESULT
LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY FANTASTIC WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID 70S EACH DAY.
THE MODEST TEMPS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE IT A GREAT
WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL PROVIDE US WITH VFR WEATHER AND A SOUTH BREEZE TODAY. A
SCATTERED CU FIELD WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS
EVIDENCE OF THIS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER TN. TONIGHT HNB/SDF WILL
BE ON THE EDGE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
RESULTING IN BORDERLINE LLWS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SHOWER
CHANCES AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TOMORROW AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...SRW
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