252
FXUS63 KLMK 131318
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
918 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL,
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
* A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES OF
STRONG, POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
IS INCREASING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 918 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2025
THE PATCHY FOG WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY IS MIXING OUT AT THIS TIME, WITH
VISIBILITIES IMPROVING IN LATEST SURFACE OBS AND MESONET IMAGERY.
THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU LAYER ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS HAS SLOWED THE DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING
PROCESS IN THOSE AREAS.
WHILE WE'VE ALREADY SEEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR AS WELL AS AROUND THE LOUISVILLE METRO, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND MIDDAY AS WE HIT AND EXCEED
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. WHILE CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE
FAIRLY RANDOM, WOULD EXPECT ENHANCED COVERAGE NEAR A SUBTLE SFC
PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME, WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES AND POPS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2025
A COUPLE OF VORTMAXES WRAPPING AROUND EACH OTHER ARE MAKING UP THE
BROAD UPPER LOW DOMINATING OUR WEATHER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
NORTHWEST IS NOTED BOTH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS WITH THE
BROAD CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/OCCASIONAL STORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST IN AND
SOUTHERN IL. THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO IS ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS HOUR.
AS THE DAY WARES ON, THE SOUTHERN VORTMAX WILL MEANDER INTO OUR
AREA. AS WE GET EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS POP UP QUICKLY AROUND LUNCHTIME AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY LOCATION WILL HAVE A FAIRLY
HIGH RAIN CHANCE FOR THE DAY, BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE. THAT SAID THOUGH, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INDIVIDUAL
STRONGER CELLS...AS STORM MOTIONS WON'T BE TOO FAST. OTHERWISE, NOT
CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE POTENTIAL, GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
HELPING LIMIT INSTABILITY.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY WITH SUNSET, THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY, LOOK FOR LOWS TO FALL OFF INTO
THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST TONIGHT...EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2025
WEDNESDAY WE START TO GET OUT OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW AS
IT BOTH FILLS IN SOME AND GETS REPLACED LOCALLY BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY. THE BETTER MOISTURE AND RESIDUE OF THAT
LOW LIKELY WILL SPARK MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, INCLUDING OUR
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIE DOWN BY EVENING.
THURSDAY, THAT RIDGING WILL HAVE ITS AXIS RIGHT OVER US. SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE STRONG CAP ALOFT. STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY LIKELY WILL BRING US OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
QUESTION MARK IS, ARE WE TOO GREEN TO GET THAT FIRST 90? RAW NBM #'S
LOOK GOOD WITH 88 FOR SDF. REGARDLESS, WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY AT
LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THAT DAY WILL BE
MUGGY.
SPEAKING OF THAT CAP, CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 90S,
PER GFS FORECAST SOUNDING AT SDF THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE'S QUITE A
BIT OF ELEVATED ABOVE THAT CAP AS WELL AS NICE SHEAR. AS MENTIONED
IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE, CAN SOMETHING
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM THAT ORGANIZES AND PUSHES EASTWARD WITHIN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...OR EVEN SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG ANY GRADIENTS. IF IT
CAN, THEN IT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ENERGY TO GOBBLE UP AS IT
APPROACHES...POTENTIALLY THURSDAY EVENING. 00Z EURO HINTS AT THE
LATTER POTENTIAL, WITH A NORTHERN IL/IN BORDER LINE AT 00Z LAYING
OUT EAST/WEST INTO SE IN BY 06Z. EARLY NSSL ML SEVERE GUIDANCE IS
FOCUSED ON INDIANA WITH HIGHEST PROBS, THOUGH IT DOES SEEM TO HAVE
AN OVERLY LARGE AREA OF RELATIVELY HIGH RISK THROUGH ALL OF KY FOR
THE LATE THU PERIOD.
FRIDAY'S ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON WHAT DOES BECOME OF
ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING. THE MORE LIKELY SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR NEW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY...AS THE CAP IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
THURSDAY'S. SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH BY
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DEVELOP.
ONCE AGAIN THE QUESTION OF SEVERITY COMES IN. IF WE GO WITH A
CLEANER SOLUTION TO START WITH, THEN WITH ANOTHER RELATIVELY HOT AND
MUGGY DAY, WE'LL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THAT
ENERGY ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH ALL HAZARDS ON
THE TABLE.
SATURDAY WE SHOULD GET A BRIEF PAUSE IN THE RAIN CHANCES AS THE
FRIDAY SYSTEM STABILIZES US A BIT. SUNDAY COULD SEE ANOTHER IMPULSE
MOVE THROUGH OUR BRIEFLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEFORE RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD IN. NBM IS NOT OVERLY CONVINCED IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS
RIDGE...GIVEN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE VARIOUS MODEL CAMPS.
THUS A SOLUTION LEANING CLOSER TO CLIMO IS FAVORED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2025
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CONTINUES TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD BE
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS PRODUCED
A MIX OF FOG AND STRATUS WHICH SHOULD MIX INTO A STRATOCU LAYER
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS,
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE EARLY-TO-MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR TSRA, SO HAVE GONE WITH PROB30 MENTION GIVEN
THE OVERALL LACK OF ORGANIZATION AND RANDOM DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY MORNING, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY TRY TO DROP AGAIN TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS; HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...CSG
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