762
FXUS63 KLMK 141755
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
155 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2025
..UPDATED SHORT TERM AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.
* A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES OF
STRONG, POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
IS INCREASING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2025
ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR TODAY, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KY AND SOUTH CENTRAL IN, WHILE
LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS BEEN PRESENT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOW
BEGINNING TO MIX INTO A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER OCCURRING WHERE THE STRATUS LAYER WAS THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN IN INTO FAR NORTHERN KY; THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW WHICH IS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SINCE WE ARE ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND DRIER AIR ALOFT IS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION, WOULD EXPECT MUCH LESS COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE; HOWEVER, MOST SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S WHERE WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING, AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT LATE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE NEAR-SFC
LAYER SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE AROUND SUNSET, SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE SURGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT, RESULTING IN STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASING MU CAPE VALUES. WHILE INCREASING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS,
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 25-30 KT,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED CELLS. WOULD EXPECT THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS TONIGHT TO BE LARGE HAIL; HOWEVER, DAMAGING
WINDS EXIST AS A SECONDARY THREAT IF ANY CONVECTION CAN GET GOING
EARLIER IN THE EVENING WHEN THE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER WILL BE
SHALLOWER. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR STORMS TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 00-06Z, LIFTING FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD, WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING
INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S.
ON THURSDAY, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AS
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 23-
25 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL SUPPORT UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL ALSO HELP TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. WHILE SOME OF
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION CAM GUIDANCE TRIES TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS EITHER WILL
NOT OCCUR, OR WOULD BE WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME
BELOW THE MID-LEVEL CAP. SIMPLY PUT, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE DAY ON
THURSDAY IS ALSO A BIT TRICKY AS ANY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WHICH TRY TO DEVELOP WOULD LIMIT HEATING. WHILE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH 90 DEGREES IN THE
URBAN HEAT CENTERS, WILL ADVERTISE MID-TO-UPPER 80S AT THIS TIME
GIVEN CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVERAGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY NIGHT...
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF
OUR AREA AS THE POTENT NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAKENED COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE MN SURFACE
LOW WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOW SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. WE'LL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HAVE AT LEAST
SOME LOW-LEVEL STABILITY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THEREFORE, WOULD
EXPECT HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS, AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT IF STRONG STORMS ARE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER.
ASSUMING CONVECTION DOESN'T GO CRAZY THURSDAY NIGHT (I.E, COLD POOL
WASHING OUT THE AIRMASS), THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A BIGGER SEVERE
CONCERN FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A CONCERNING SIGNAL FOR A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN THE PRESENCE OF PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE
POSITIVE AREA CAPABLE OF LARGE OR VERY LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING
WINDS. HODOGRAPHS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LOOPING FOR TORNADIC
POTENTIAL AS WELL. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE PARENT CLOSED LOW COULD ROTATE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY, TRIGGERING UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH WOULD THEN
PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING, PERHAPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WIND PRODUCING, COLD POOL DRIVEN
COMPLEX COULD RAKE ACROSS OUR REGION SOMETIME IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS WOULD ARISE WITH ANY ISOLATED/SUPERCELLULAR
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD POOL DRIVEN COMPLEX IN THE FORM OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADIC POTENTIAL. TOO EARLY TO FOCUS SPECIFICALLY
ON A GIVEN HAZARD, BUT RIGHT NOW, ALL ARE IN PLAY WITH DAMAGING WIND
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
SATURDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE WEEKEND COULD SEE A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD AS WE ARE EXPECTING THE
COLD FRONT TO BE CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED (COLD POOL) WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR CWA. WE'LL KEEP SOME CHANCES IN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN CWA, BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH LATE FRIDAY
CONVECTION. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S SEEM REASONABLE BUT COULD VARY
DEPENDING ON THE FRIDAY OUTCOME.
MONDAY - TUESDAY...
UPPER RIDGING SHOULD START TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER STRONG CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO LIFT BACK
NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA AS A WARM FRONT. WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES
IN HERE WITH TEMPS LIKELY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S BY TUESDAY.
CONCERN IS STARTING TO GROW FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2025
MVFR STRATUS OVER LEX AND RGA HAS BEEN STUBBORN THIS MORNING BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
NEAR LEX AT THIS TIME SHOULD LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, SO WILL KEEP PREVAILING PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. LATER THIS EVENING, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE, WILL START WITH A
PROB30 TSRA MENTION AT THIS TIME, THOUGH THIS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. ON THURSDAY, WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MID-TO-LATE MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...CSG
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