210
FXUS63 KLMK 150751
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
351 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS REMAINS LOW, BUT
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
* GREATER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IS FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE ON THE TABLE, INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. A
FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND INSTANCES OF VERY LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE.
* CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE HAZARDS AND TIMING FRIDAY IS STILL
LIMITED AND DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY EAST
FROM THE OZARKS AND CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.
IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 20C THROUGH
THE 850-800MB LAYER WILL KEEP CONVECTION WELL SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
DAY, AND PUSH SFC TEMPS CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES. LIMITING FACTOR ON
TEMPS WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, AND WE EXPECT THAT TO
HOLD ALL BUT URBAN LOUISVILLE AND PERHAPS BOWLING GREEN IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.
LATE IN THE DAY A DEEPENING, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS AND
EASTERN MISSOURI, WHERE IT WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE CONVECTION VERY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WELL THESE
STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER IN THE LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IF CONVECTION SURVIVES LATER
INTO THE EVENING, THERE IS PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON TAP
WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9C/KM, AND CLOSE TO 50 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL, WITH A LOW BUT
NON-ZERO RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR TORNADOES, IF STORMS CAN
REMAIN SFC-BASED. IT'S A VERY CONDITIONAL RISK TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL
BE MAXIMIZED LATE IN THE EVENING AND MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65,
WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STORMS PUSH TOWARD
EASTERN KENTUCKY.
BY LATE FRIDAY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS MINNESOTA, WITH EVEN STRONGER JET DYNAMICS AND HEIGHT FALLS
TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE WHAT WILL STILL BE A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR
MASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON ARE VERY UNSTABLE WITH
MIXED-LAYER CAPE PUSHING 3000 J/KG AND VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. STRONG DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INITIALLY
DISCRETE CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS. ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS ARE ON THE TABLE, INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL WITH THE SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE EVENING AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE, OR AT
LEAST BOWING SEGMENTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN AN SPC ENHANCED RISK WOULD
OTHERWISE SUGGEST, AS THE THREAT IS DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING CONVECTION. THAT
SAID, SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
COMMONWEALTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY. KEEP UP
TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS, AND BE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS
TO RECEIVE WARNINGS!
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING FAIRLY QUIET AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY, BRINGING DRIER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION. WHILE THERE LIKELY WON'T BE SUPER STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH
A WSW WIND BEHIND THE FRONT, FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SFC FRONT TO BEGIN TO
TRY TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH, INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM THE SOUTH. THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE TN BORDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY (UPPER 70S/LOW 80S), WITH MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. RIDGING SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH
A GRADUAL WARMUP EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, A RETURN OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
SPECIFIC THREATS IS FAIRLY LOW, THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT LONG
RANGE AI/ML GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A RETURN OF A SEVERE THREAT NEXT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
WINDOW FOR PRECIP HAS CLOSED AS THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. SCT-BKN HIGH-BASED STRATUS INITIALLY ACROSS
SDF AND LEX, WITH A MORE SOLID BUT STILL HIGH-BASED DECK SPREADING
NE FROM BWG. WE'LL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT S-SE
WINDS.
MID-LATE MORNING SDF AND LEX COULD AGAIN SEE LOW STRATO-CU AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THE
GROWING BOUNDARY LAYER. COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR A MVFR CIG
BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET.
VERY WARM AND STRONGLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPORT GENERALLY SCATTERED FLAT CU, WITH SSW WINDS GUSTING JUST
OVER 20 KT. GUSTS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STORMS THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM WILL BE FACING
AN INCRESASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS THEY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARD HNB AND SDF, SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
LATE IN THE EVENING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...RAS
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