534
FXUS63 KLMK 161523
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1123 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.
* ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE ON THE TABLE, INCLUDING DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES AND INSTANCES OF VERY LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
* STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
WEST OF INTERSTATE 65, WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1123 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2025
A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS RAINFALL IS BEING FORCED BY
STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWEST
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. WHILE THE SURFACE LAYER IS PRETTY STABLE FROM
NOCTURNAL COOLING, WE DO HAVE AN EML ALOFT WITH FAIRLY STEEP LOW-MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE WAS CAPPING OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE CAP MIXED
OUT DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING AND CONVECTION HAS TAKEN OFF. STORMS
HAVE BEEN ON/OFF SEVERE THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL BEING REPORTED IN THE STORMS. GIVEN THE NEAR SURFACE
STABILITY, GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON OCCASION, BUT NOTHING
NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE 1.50 INCHES, WE'RE SEEING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.
GOING FORWARD, MAIN AREA OF SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE FROM ROUGHLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BUTLER COUNTY NORTHEAST TO HARRISON COUNTY. IN
THIS AREA STORMS CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, AND HAIL UP TO 1
INCH IN DIAMETER IN THE STRONGEST CORES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A MORE
CONCENTRATED WIND THREAT MAY EMERGE WITH A SMALL SCALE BOW/MCS THAT
IS TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE NEAR HOPKINSVILLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SURGE
EASTWARD ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER THIS MORNING. HAVE DONE A LOCAL
EXTENSION OF WW259 THROUGH NOON EDT. WE DID CUT OFF THE NORTHERN
AREA OF THAT WATCH WHERE ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE WITH AN INCH TO AN INCH AND
THREE QUARTERS FALLING ALONG A LINE FROM MAYFIELD NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE ELIZABETHTOWN AREA. WE EXPECT PORTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS AND
SOUTHERN KY TO PICKUP ON SIMILAR RAINFALL THROUGH THE MORNING, MOST
LIKELY AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. GIVEN RECENT RAINS FROM THIS
MORNING AND EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
HAVE COORDINATED WITH JKL AND HOISTED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF/TWO-THIRDS OF THE LMK FORECAST AREA.
AS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SOMEWHAT OF A COMPLICATED FORECAST HERE
AS ONGOING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KY INTO THE AFTERNOON. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES
SHOW BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS CLEARING THE PADUCAH AREA AND WORKING
EASTWARD. THE OVERALL THEME THAT WE HAVE BEEN MESSAGING SEEMS TO OK
AT THE MOMENT. THAT IS, WE EXPECTED ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO
FIRE OUT ACROSS EASTERN MO/NE AR/W KY/S IL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PARAMETER SPACE OUT THAT WAY WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND STRONG TORNADOES (SOME LONG
TRACK POSSIBLE). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL KY
WHILE GROWING UP SCALE INTO A LARGE OR A COUPLE OF MCS/QLCS'S
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SPINUP TORNADOES WITHIN
THE LINE.
THE ACTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING'S ACTIVITY REMAINS
THE MOST CHALLENGING. IT APPEARS THAT A TWO PRONGED SCENARIO COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. FIRST, ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN KY MAY END UP STALLING OUT AND LEAVING SOME SORT OF
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IN PLACE. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT, THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SUPERCELLS DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY PADUCAH EASTWARD TO BOWLING GREEN
AND TOWARD SOMERSET. THIS BOUNDARY COULD THEN LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PARAMETER SPACE ACROSS KY WOULD SUPPORT ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, GIVEN ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND
SHORTER TIME OF INSOLATION, NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT HOW UNSTABLE WE
COULD BECOME.
MEANWHILE BACK TO THE WEST, EXPECTED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
ONGOING WHILE DEVELOPING UPSCALE INTO 1 OR MORE LINES. THESE QLCSS
SHOULD THEN PLOW EASTWARD RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS, SPIN UP
TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE, ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED LARGE
HAIL. THIS SCENARIO HAS SUPPORT FROM MANY OF THE 12Z CAMS THOUGH
THOUGH THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH COULD THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
LIFT PRIOR TO THE QLCS COMING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HRRR IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS I-
64. ON THE OTHER HAND THE WRF ARW/NSSL WRF AND THE RRFS ALL KEEP
THE BOUNDARY MORE OVER SOUTHERN KY WHILE PLOWING THE QLCS OUT TO THE
WEST EASTWARD RATHER QUICKLY. MPAS RUNS ARE NOT IN YET, BUT WILL
EVALUATE THEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2025
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ALL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS, INCLUDING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, VERY LARGE HAIL, AND
STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
MAIN BUST POTENTIAL HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS THIS MORNING,
WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A
LARGE HAIL THREAT OF THEIR OWN, ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.
WHILE THEY WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE,
STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO WIN OUT, ALLOWING A FAIRLY QUICK
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH AROUND 3000 J/KG OF MIXED-LAYER CAPE, 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT
CAPE, AND 60 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS WILL
ORGANIZE INTO AT LEAST BOWING SEGMENTS. A FEW OF THE DISCRETE CELLS
COULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND/OR STRONG TORNADOES, AND LINE
SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS. SPIN-UP TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE IN PLAY WITH ANY OF THE BOWING STRUCTURES AS WELL.
THE PEAK SEVERE THREAT COULD BE SLIGHTLY DELAYED DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RELOAD AFTER MORNING CONVECTION, BUT THE
THREAT WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED ON THE EVENING HOURS. INITIAL DISCRETE
CELLS COULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT IN THE LATE EVENING, THE LINE WILL
BECOME MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED, OPENING THE DOOR FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT PLACEMENT IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT IT BEARS WATCHING AS THE
EVENT UNFOLDS.
BOTTOM LINE, SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO
RECEIVE WARNINGS AND A PLAN IN PLACE SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED!
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING TO OUR EAST.
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS
BEFORE FLATTENING OUT AGAINST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF.
WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY WSW WINDS ON SATURDAY. OVERALL, MOST
WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIR WEATHER WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN KY WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEW AIRMASS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL BEGIN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WE ENTER THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
BY MONDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION
RESULTING IN WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION, AS PWATS SURGE INTO THE
UPPER PERCENTILES OF SPC'S SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. MODELS TEND TO
AGREE ON CONVECTION FROM OUR WEST MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND MONDAY EVENING. THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION, PROLONGING OUR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE OCCLUDED LOW PUSHES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS ADVERTISING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND ML GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING ENHANCED SEVERE PROBABILITIES, SEVERE
WEATHER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. DETAILS REMAIN HAZY THIS FAR OUT, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2025
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THIS TAF SET IS TIMING AND IMPACTS OF TWO
DIFFERENT WAVES OF CONVECTION. ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL
MAINLY PRODUCE BRIEF IFR VIS IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN, BUT CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LEX AND PERHAPS RGA. FIRST WAVE OF
STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 15-17Z, GIVING WAY TO
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SSW WINDS.
NEXT WAVE OF MORE VIGOROUS STORMS IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING.
GIVEN THE WIND THREAT, OPTED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO WITH CONVECTIVE
WINDS STARTING AROUND 23Z IN HNB/BWG, CLOSER TO 00Z AT SDF, AND 01-
02Z IN LEX AND RGA. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE BETTER SHOT AT MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VIS, AND COULD WARRANT A PREVAILING MENTION IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCES. SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN WAVES AT BWG AND RGA AS WE COULD
HAVE A LINGERING BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS TO FOCUS CONVECTION SOONER.
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF AND CLEARING OUT OF LOWER CLOUDS
AFTER THE STORMS PASS AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SW WINDS AND CIRRUS
CEILINGS HEADING INTO SAT MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ026>028-039>041-
045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM....CG
AVIATION.....RAS
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