382
FXUS63 KLMK 170753
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
353 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY, COOLER, AND LESS HUMID WEATHER TODAY.
* RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH INTERVALS OF SHOWERS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
* UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2025
DEEP OCCLUDED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE CONVECTION NOW WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST, BUT THE SFC COLD FRONT STILL TO PUSH THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING,
AND A RESPECTABLE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL RESULT IN BREEZY,
COOLER, AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2025
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT, BUT THAT PATTERN
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND NEGATIVELY TILTED AS ANOTHER LOW KICKS
OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY, BUT BETTER
CHANCES HOLD OFF INTO THE NIGHT. A STRONGER MOISTURE FEED AND
ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE ACTIVE WITH WAVES OF
CONVECTION CROSSING THE AREA FROM EARLY MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST. BEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WILL REMAIN OFF TO
OUR WEST, BUT DEPENDING ON TIME OF DAY WE COULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH FOR
A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD POOL, BUT THE
TROF AXIS FINALLY PASSES OVER DURING THE DAY AND UPPER HEIGHTS START
TO RISE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEK IN COOL NW FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES. JUST ENOUGH CYCLONIC CURVATURE TO KEEP A 20% POP IN FOR
THURSDAY, BUT BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2025
LINE OF STORMS HAS SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WITH TRAILING
STRATIFORM RAINFALL LAGGING BY SEVERAL HOURS. THIS TRAILING RAIN
AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF KBWG AND KRGA WITHIN 1-2 HOURS OF
FORECAST VALID TIME. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG AT KBWG, AS
SEVERAL MODELS ARE BRINGS IFR VISIBILITY TO THE SITE. CONFIDENCE
ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO ADD IT TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...WFO EAX
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