477
FXUS63 KLMK 180007
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
807 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
* STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
* A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK
AND INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2025
AFTERNOON SATELLITE DATA SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY, SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY, TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
LOWER 80S. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED AND WE'RE
SEEING GUSTY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT TIMES.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND
STRONG ATMOSPHERIC MIXING. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO COVER THIS ASPECT OF THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. SLIGHTLY
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY WITH
READINGS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
FOR SUNDAY, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. WE'LL SOME LIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
WHICH COULD POP A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 70S OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO THE LOWER 80S OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE A SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WITH A STRONGER FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF, SHOWERS WILL BECOME
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 50S OVER THE
BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
MOVING INTO MONDAY, UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS.
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS STATES
AND INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY TAKE PLACE. FURTHER EAST INTO OUR REGION, WE'LL CONTINUE SEE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH AN INCREASED MOISTURE
FLUX OUT OF THE GULF. WE WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
H5 JET MAX CRUISING THROUGH WESTERN NY/PA WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT, MOST LIKELY DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER
AND GENERALLY MARGINAL SHEAR. THERE MAY BE SOME MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS OFF ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE, A BETTER
INSTABILITY PROFILE MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED/SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID-UPPER 70S OVER THE BLUEGRASS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.
ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE SHOW STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO THE TN VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THE STRONGER BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AS THE MID-
LEVEL JET ROTATES INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WHILE THE OVERALL SETUP UP FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
REGION. CURRENT MODEL DATA REMAINS SUGGESTIVE THAT EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER MAY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL INSOLATION TAKING PLACE TO OUR SOUTH. BASED ON THIS, I
WOULD CLASSIFY THE TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS CONDITIONAL AT
THE MOMENT. SHOULD WE HAVE MORE CLEARING THAT ANTICIPATED, THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC AND THERMAL/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS WOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL AND SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS OFFERING ALL
TYPES OF SEVERE THREATS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER-MIDDLE
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN A BIT AND SLIDE EASTWARD
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WHILE THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WILL LIKELY KEEP COOL/SHOWERY
WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS DURING
THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S.
BY FRIDAY, WE'LL SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US WITH A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FRIDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL, THE PATTERN HERE ARGUES FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS, BUT THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOL SIDE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70, WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 807 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND GUSTS
ARE BEGINNING TO EASE CURRENTLY. WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...KDW
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