540
FXUS63 KLMK 021422
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1022 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MAINLY DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
* ACTIVE WEATHER TO RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
DISSIPATED AT THIS HOUR. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL FEATURE
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
DID THE SEE QUITE AS MUCH EFFICIENT MIXING AS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION DID. THEREFORE, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. ESPECIALLY, AREAS THAT SAW RAIN FROM THIS
AFTERNOON. FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE IN THE
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO TOMORROW. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE REGION, THOUGH
YESTERDAY'S STALLED COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE TN BORDER VICINITY.
WE'LL HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS THIS MORNING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KY NEAR
THE BOUNDARY. SOME FOG IS ALSO LIKELY IN THAT AREA WITH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS, AND WE'LL ALSO SEE FOG EXPAND ALONG THE
KENTUCKY/CUMBERLAND RIVERS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. SKIES WILL AGAIN BE HAZY DUE TO NW FLOW CARRYING
WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT INTO THE REGION. THE SMOKE MAY HOLD BACK SFC
HEATING JUST A BIT, SO DIDN'T GO TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE DAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. A FEW OF OUR COOLEST SPOTS IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION HAVE ALREADY
DIPPED INTO THE 40S EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. THOUGH, OUR COOLEST SPOTS IN THE BLUEGRASS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOW 50S.
RIDGING BUILDS AND THICKNESSES INCREASE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WAA AND HIGHER 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS
ACROSS THE BOARD. RURAL AREAS SHOULD REACH SOLID MID 80S, WITH A FEW
URBAN ENVIRONMENTS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE
EAST COAST INTO WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SW FLOW
ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO RIDE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A NE TO SW ORIENTED COLD
FRONT WILL SLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-MS VALLEY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONGER RIDGING AND THE BOUNDARY PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD DUE TO STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS QUITE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH SOUTHERN IN COULD
SEE SOME INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES BY EVENING. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE LATE WEEK PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF
TO THE NORTHWEST, PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY CONVECTION, WILL GRADUALLY
SINK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WE CONTINUE TO FEATURE FAIRLY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES FOR THURSDAY, THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOOKS LIMITED
DUE TO WEAK FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
THE ARRIVAL OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY
FRIDAY SHOULD BOOST SHEAR VALUES AND THE ODDS OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...
IT'S POSSIBLE WE CAN FULLY DRY OUT BY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT IF
THE COLD FRONT CAN PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE (AND POPS) IS A BIT LOWER FOR THIS TIME FRAME. AT LEAST A
BRIEF DRY PERIOD SEEMS LIKELY, THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS COULD BRING SHOWERS BACK TO
AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BWG WILL SEE SOME SCT LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4-
6 KFT THIS MORNING. TODAY, A SE WIND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, ALBEIT HAZY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT. AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, EXPECT VERY
LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME BRIEF FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM....EBW
AVIATION.....EBW
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