944
FXUS63 KLMK 021921
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
* ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PERIOD. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HAZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE HAZE CONTINUES AS WILDFIRE SMOKE
FROM CENTRAL CANADA ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WERE SOLIDLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS OUT NEAR THE I-165 CORRIDOR. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE 70S THIS EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S OVER THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S IN THE I-65 AND POINTS WEST.
FOR TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. HIGHS LOOK TO WARM
SOLIDLY INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. A FEW OF THE URBAN CORRIDORS WILL PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED QUIET/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN AREAS. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE BE MOSTLY DRY AS WELL AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SLOW TO
PUSH OUT. WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KY INTO SOUTHERN IN. NBM BLEND HERE LOOKS A BIT TOO HIGH, SO WILL
ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE WARM WITH MOST LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE
85-90 DEGREE RANGE. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
SAG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE A
SHOT OF SOME LATE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND FAR
NORTHERN KY. HERE, WE'LL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF POPS IN THE
ONGOING FORECAST. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
MOVING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST
WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE EASTWARD, BUT THE WAVE LOSES AMPLITUDE AND THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DROP INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND THEN LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
NUMEROUS PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW, PROMOTING HIGH RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH RESERVOIR OF
ELEVATED PWAT VALUES COMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN GET PULLED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. LOCALIZED DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
REGION FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON HOW MUCH SHEAR WE'LL HAVE ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, THE
PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH LOOK TO BE RATHER WEAK, IN TERMS OF THE
WIND FIELD. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL PATTERN HERE HAS THE HALLMARKS OF
AN EARLY SUMMER EXTENDED RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY GIVEN
THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES THAT COULD COME INTO THE REGION.
SO WITH THAT SAID, WE'LL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A UNSETTLED WEATHER
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL
BE COOLER THAN WHAT WE SEE EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH READINGS HIGHS
IN THE LOW-MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
HEAVY QPF IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT THE EXACT
PLACEMENT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS
UP. CURRENT FORECAST HAVE THIS OCCURRING JUST TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST
FROM SOUTHERN KS THROUGH CENTRAL MO AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
LOCALLY, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL LOOK LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY,
THOUGH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DESPITE THE FACT THAT RAINFALL
WOULD OCCURRING OVER THE PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING
CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN SPOTS THAT SEE REPEATED RAINFALL OVER
INCREASINGLY SATURATED GROUND.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS STALLED OUT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT PLAN IS TO TREND THE FORECAST DRIER FOR SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BWG WILL SEE SOME SCT LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4-
6 KFT THIS MORNING. TODAY, A SE WIND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, ALBEIT HAZY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT. AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, EXPECT VERY
LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME BRIEF FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
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