668
FXUS63 KLMK 031029
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
629 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
* ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PERIOD. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
NOT A LOT TO SPEAK OF IN THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE OUR AREA. THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE THE TASTE OF MID-SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES AS
THE MERCURY SURGES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S TODAY UNDER OPTIMAL
HEATING CONDITIONS. WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE
AGAIN TODAY WHICH COULD HURT HEATING POTENTIAL JUST A BIT. STILL,
WILL GO ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS UNDER THIS PATTERN. DRY WEATHER AND
MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN MOST SPOTS. AROUND 70 IS POSSIBLE IN YOUR WARMER CITIES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIDING EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST,
WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY. WE'LL STILL BE UNDER JUST ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WE WILL STAY DRY AND WARM
THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY, WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR NW CWA AS A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM AN EASTERN CANADA SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH, AND
SOME CONVECTION FROM UPSTREAM COULD BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THAT AREA.
OVERALL, THE BULK OF DATA HAS OUR ANTECEDENT DRY/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS
WINNING OUT WITH MOST CONVECTION STAYING TO OUR NW. LOOKING FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE COMPLETELY LOSES OUT OVER OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BROAD, LOW AMPLITUDE, TROUGHING SETTLING OVER OUR REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE CLOSER
INTO OUR REGION, WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION SURVIVING TO SOME DEGREE
INTO OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. AS YOU
WOULD EXPECT WITH ZONAL FLOW, SEVERAL PERTURBATION WILL LIKELY RIDE
THROUGH THAT FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA, BRINGING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MULTIPLE HAZARDS/THREATS FOR THIS LATE
WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND PATTERN AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME
FLOODING ISSUES, AND INDIVIDUAL WAVE/PERTURBATIONS MAY CARRY SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREATS. EXPECTING PLENTY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS TO POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY, AND GIVEN THE
TRAINING POTENTIAL WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND MULTIPLE
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SOME VALUES MAY BEGIN TO ADD UP, ESPECIALLY BY
THE WEEKEND. TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE 1 TO 3" RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. OVERALL, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE
MOST OF THIS RAINFALL, HOWEVER SOME LOCALIZED/ISOLATED SPOTS MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME ISSUES. INTERESTINGLY, THE 02/12Z LREF PROBABILITIES
ONLY SHOW ABOUT A 25% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2" OF RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
NW CWA DURING THIS STRETCH, WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER SOUTH
YOU GO. SURPRISED TO NOT SEE PROBS A LITTLE HIGHER GIVEN THE
PATTERN. WE'LL SEE IF THAT TREND HOLDS.
THE OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT FOR EACH
PERTURBATION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH EACH
PERTURBATION, AND YOU GOTTA WATCH ANY SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT
SETUPS THIS TIME OF YEAR. OUTSIDE OF THAT, WE'LL LIKELY HAVE MODEST
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO
STRENGTHEN WITH EACH SHORTWAVE. A WIND AND HAIL WOULD LIKELY
ACCOMPANY EACH WAVE AS WELL. TOO EARLY TO LOOK AT SPECIFICS AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING EACH ENHANCEMENT, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL UNCERTAIN.
THIS IS MORE ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN/SETUP AND RECOGNITION OF
THESE POTENTIAL THREATS IN THOSE GENERAL PATTERNS.
OVERALL, TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TOWARD NORMAL RANGES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, CLOUDS, AND PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY.
AS A RESULT, LOOK FOR LOW AND MID 80S BEING A GOOD BET EACH DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AND MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...
A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL LIKELY
HELP DRAG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR REGION, SINKING
SOUTHWARD. THIS SHOULD DRY US OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
PERHAPS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT FOR
MONDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WHICH
WOULD BRING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR MONDAY. FOR NOW,
WILL STAY FAIRLY OPTIMISTIC FOR A DRIER FORECAST. OVERALL, TEMPS
SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WE'LL KEEP LOW TO MID 80S GOING FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH CALM TO
LIGHT SE WINDS AROUND SUNRISE. BY MID TO LATE MORNING, LOOK FOR A
LIGHT S WIND THEN VEERING TO A STEADY TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SSW
WIND. LOOK FOR SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 18 TO 23 MPH RANGE. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS BENEATH FEW-SCT UPPER
CLOUD COVER LATER TODAY. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SMOKE/HAZE AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS
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