836
FXUS63 KLMK 032338
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
738 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
* ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PERIOD. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUE TO STRONGLY INFLUENCE OUR REGION.
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A DIURNAL CU FIELD IN FULL SWING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT
THIS HOUR WERE IN THE 83 TO 87 DEGREE RANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 84 TO 88 IN MOST SPOTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE URBAN CORRIDORS WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TO REACH 89 TO
MAYBE 90. WITH GOOD ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE MAY SEE A LITTLE OF THE
ELEVATED SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MIX DOWN TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER HAZY SUNSET WITH A TINGE
OF SMOKE SMELL IN THE AIR. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S. QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH READINGS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.
FOR WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. IT APPEARS THAT WE'LL REMAIN UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP US DRY AND WARM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN THE THIRD PERIOD ONWARD. HIGHS ON THE DAY WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH
BROAD HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL BY FRIDAY BEFORE MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN US LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FROM THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO
STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FLOW
ALOFT. AS THIS OCCURS, SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT BRING EPISODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
IN TERMS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER, WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AND THREATS FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD. IN
GENERAL, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODEL SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOW LOW-
MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK IN THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY PERIOD. STRONGER PERTURBATIONS COMING THROUGH ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MAY END UP PRODUCING A STRONGER SHEAR PROFILE
LEADING TO A MORE HEIGHTENED RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER. BASED ON
THE PROFILES, DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THIS STRONGER ACTIVITY.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD HAZARD WILL BE THE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
THROUGH. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER CERTAIN AREAS. OVERALL,
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST OF THIS QPF WITHOUT ISSUE AS THE
FLOW WILL ALOFT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND THE EPISODIC BOUTS OF
RAINFALL COULD BE SPREAD OUT OVER TIME. NONETHELESS, THERE IS A
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION, MOST CONCENTRATED IN
THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR EARLY JUNE NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER TROUGHING LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. THE
LATEST DATA DO SUGGEST THAT A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY YIELDING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING TUESDAY.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL HERE WITH UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER-
MIDDLE 60S. SOME LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS WITH VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS WINDS DIMINISH
SOME BUT REMAIN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND WE MAY SEE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF WINDS INCREASING
SOME WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BTN
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