215
FXUS63 KLMK 042359
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
759 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER SUNSET WEST
OF I-65.
* ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PERIOD, WITH FRIDAY HOLDING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL.
* EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS
THE REGION. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
DIURNAL CU FIELD WAS IN FULL SWING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A MIX OF MOSTLY SUNNY BUT HAZY SKIES WAS NOTED. TEMPERATURES WERE
BEING HELD DOWN A BIT BY THE CU FIELD AS MOST LOCATIONS WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS, NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 83-88 ARE
LOOKING MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S.
FOR TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP AS CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF
FROM THE WEST PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER TO THE AREA. MOST AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. WE'LL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME WEAKENING CONVECTION COMING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF A SHOWER OR STORM LOOK TO BE ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS WHERE WE'LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN
THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE.
FOR THURSDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY INTO THE REGION. A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE OZARKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FROM ACROSS OUR REGION DO SHOW INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THE CAM SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LOCALLY, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MORNING
CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER IMPACT INSOLATION. THE CAMS DO AGREE THAT
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MID SOUTH REGION
FROM SOUTHERN MO INTO NORTHERN AR. BACKGROUND SHEAR ACROSS THE
REGION REMAINS QUITE WEAK WITH ONLY 15-25KTS OF SHEAR BEING
PREDICTED. IN GENERAL, DYNAMICAL/KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE STRONGLY
SUGGESTIVE OF MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS. HIGHS ON THE
DAY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY CLOUDS/PRECIP, THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS OF 82-87.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THERE REMAINS
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING HERE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS FLATTENS OUT AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN A FOCI FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS COME THROUGH WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW ALOFT. THE
STRONGEST ONE STILL LOOKS TO COME THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE
COMING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY, CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN HERE,
BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A STRONG
PERTURBATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEAD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE, SOME ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AND WIND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SORT OF MCS LOOKS
POSSIBLE HERE AND ARRIVING INTO OUR REGION NEAR OR JUST AFTER PEAK
HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY AND GREATER
SHEAR THAT WOULD AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE TORNADO THREAT WITH THIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN LOW AS SHEAR PROFILES LOOK RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL. PERHAPS
THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WOULD BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KY/NORTHWEST TN. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD ROLL EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT.
WE MAY HAVE A LITTLE BREAK ON SATURDAY AS WE'LL BE IN BETWEEN
PERTURBATIONS, BUT ANOTHER ONE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN UP. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO PUSH ON THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD. AGAIN, DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY, SOME STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
RAINFALL AND THE EXPECTED BREAKS BETWEEN WAVES MAY PRECLUDE MORE
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER, SCATTERED HYDRO ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS MAY TEND TO
TRAIN.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A TROUGH EAST, RIDGE WEST
TYPE PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A SECONDARY WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH COULD SUPPORT YET ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE. AFTER THAT, STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION AND SEND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEEKEND FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA YIELDING A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 IN MOST SPOTS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE
BACK THROUGH IN, IL AND MO. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WHILE THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO SHOW VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THE MAIN
CHALLENGE AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS COME FROM POSSIBLE SHOWERS/STORMS
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND LATER IN THE DAY. AS THE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES, WE COULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WORKING TOWARDS
HNB IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WHILE IT'S POSSIBLE A FEW COULD WORK
TOWARDS SDF, MOST OF THE MODELS TEND TO WASHOUT THE FIRST WAVE AS IT
APPROACHES THE OHIO RIVER. WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BTN
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