933
FXUS63 KLMK 051737
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
137 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
FRIDAY HOLDING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL.
* EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS
THE REGION. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1109 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, SO CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE.
CONTINUING TO SEE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING.
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO THE REGION, PWATS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY INCREASE. AS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS INCREASE,
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE. WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. STORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY INSTABILITY
DRIVEN, GIVEN WEAK SHEAR. COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ESPECIALLY AREAS TO THE EAST, THEY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY TODAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
THIS MORNING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
THEN SHOOTS TO THE NORTHEAST, OVER THE CONUS. THIS INCLUDES THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A VERY WEAK SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT SITS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AS IT
STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. NORTH OF
THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE MIDWEST, AND EAST OF
THE FRONT, ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SITS. ALONG THE FRONT LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP FUNNEL GULF MOISTURE
NORTH BEFORE FLOWING ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ALONG THE FRONT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.5-2" TODAY.
CURRENTLY, OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. AS IT DOES THIS, IT'S BEEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING. LIGHTNING COUNTS CONTINUE TO FALL, BUT AFTER
DIURNAL WARMING BEGINS AND TEMPERATURES LIFT BACK INTO THE 80S,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND LAST INTO THE
NIGHT. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN CLOSER
TO THE FRONT WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST, TOWARDS THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK, SO ORGANIZED STORMS
WILL BE LESS LIKELY. LIGHTNING IS LIKELY THE GREATEST THREAT WITH
GUSTY SUB-SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS
AND WEAK SHEAR WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANY HAIL TO EXPERIENCE MELTING
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND, LIMITING ITS SIZE.
TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND FARTHER TO
THE EAST WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. UNDER BROKEN SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
BY FRIDAY, THERE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL PUSH THE SURFACE, LOW NEAR THE FRONT, EAST TOWARDS OHIO. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT TO DROP SOUTH TO NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER AND BECOME MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST
ORIENTED.
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD REMAIN IN THE
AREA, BUT THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS ON FRIDAY COMES FROM AN EXPECTED
MCS THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, TRAVEL
THROUGH THE OZARKS, AND CONTINUE INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS. SHEAR REMAINS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND WEAK, BUT THE DRIVING
FORCE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE INSTABILITY FROM DIURNAL WARMING.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAS THIS SYSTEM ARRIVING DURING PEAK HEATING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MLCAPE VALUES COULD REACH TO
AROUND 1,500 J/KG BEFORE THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE,
BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LOW WORK OVER THE CWA. IN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT, PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. OVERALL FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS AREN'T
EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING ISSUES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S.
BY AROUND TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
LOOKING AT CURRENT SATELLITE, LOWER CLOUDS ARE STREAMING THROUGH THE
REGION AROUND 2500-3500 FEET. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING, WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP. AS THESE MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION, THEY WILL DISSIPATE.
IN THE OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BACK AND RELAX BECOMING CALM TO LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL LIFT TO MID-LEVELS AND THIN SOME.
IN THE MORNING, LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN BRINGING SOME AREAS DOWN
TO MVFR. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-9KTS. IN
THE AFTERNOON, AN MCV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...SRW/ZEP
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