638
FXUS63 KLMK 061114
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
714 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
* 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
TODAY, THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES, AND AT THE SURFACE, THE PESKY SLOW
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONT SITS OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALONG THIS FRONT IS WHERE MOST OF
YESTERDAY'S SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS.
LOOKING FORWARD, WIND ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE WEAK, SO ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING ORGANIZED. WE HAVE ALSO
LACK FORCING, BUT WE DO HAVE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY
THAT COMES FROM THAT, AND AS CLUSTERS OF STORMS WORK EAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS TOWARDS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY, THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR THE ADVANCING
CONVECTION.
AS GROUND TEMPERATURES WARM AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE, IT'S
EASIER TO GET GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY TODAY WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT DIURNAL WARMING,
BUT CAMS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES REACHING TO AROUND 1,500 J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF KENTUCKY. MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 WITH MAYBE A FEW
POCKETS IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA, MLCAPE VALUES COULD REACH TO
NEAR 2,300 J/KG OR SO, AND MUCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB TO 2,700-2,800
J/KG. WITH THE WEAK SHEAR, TORNADOES AREN'T LIKELY, AND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM
TODAY. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY, BUT DUE TO THE
LACK OF SHEAR AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVEL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5-2", ANY HAIL WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND.
THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND WORK EAST ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE MAIN LINE BEGINS TO ARRIVE
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA AROUND 21-22Z. BY THIS TIME LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MIGHT NOT BE AS STEEP. 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLY
LIKELY ALONG THIS LINE, AND BY 2-3 MOST OF THE LEADING LINE SHOULD
BE THROUGH THE CWA WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINING UNTIL 9-10Z
SATURDAY MORNING.
TODAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S WITH TONIGHT'S LOWS DROPPING TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
SATURDAY, THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY, BUT AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
MOVES EAST ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI, ITS SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS
MISSOURI WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN'T VERY IMPRESSIVE
WITH WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY, BUT THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
BY SUNDAY THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY DRY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BEFORE A
LARGE COLD FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
ALL AREA TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED. A HEAVY DOWNPOUR
COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES FOR A SHORT TIME. CEILINGS THIS MORNING
WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AT HNB, BUT LATE TONIGHT ALL AREA TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR LEVELS OR BELOW AROUND 9Z OR SO.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW
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