565
FXUS63 KLMK 061903
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND SUNDAY.
* 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
2000-3000J/KG OF SBCAPE, A BROKEN AGITATED CU FIELD, AND WEAK
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT OF THIS
ENVIRONMENT. THESE STORMS ARE BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS, SMALL HAIL,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND MINOR FLOODING. AFTER THESE STORMS PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA, WE WILL SEE A 2-3 HOUR BREAK BEFORE THE MCV MOVING
OUT OF THE OZARKS ENTERS THE REGION.
AS THE REMNANT MCS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION, A 25-30KT LLJ WILL MOVE OVER INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
GOOD ROTATION IS VISIBLE WITH THE MCS ON SATELLITE AND RADAR,
THEREFORE, COUPLED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR, THIS WILL INCREASE THE
BRIEF, SPIN-UP TORNADO THREAT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION WITH THE NEXT WAVE. LOOKING AT SATELLITE,
THERE ARE GOOD BREAKS IN THE CLOUD WHICH WILL HELP THE ENVIRONMENT
TO RECOVER FROM THE FIRST WAVE. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH ON
SEEING DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, A SPIN-UP TORNADO, AND MINOR FLOODING.
THE MCS WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH SUNSET. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN
TO SHOWERS AND PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE.
MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MOVES ALONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING GUSTY
TO DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND MINOR FLOODING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ABOUT 1000J/KG OF SBCAPE, VERY WEAK SHEAR, AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WITH PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES. THIS WAVE WILL LAST INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING AND PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
ON SUNDAY, BETTER TROUGHING WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION PICKING UP
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND PUSHING IT SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MONDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND
SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MID NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE THROUGH.
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN IN THE SHORT AND LONG TERM, WE ARE
LOOKING AT A TOTAL QPF OF 1.5 - 2.5 INCHES. SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE 3-
3.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH TRAINING STORMS.
BEYOND TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. THESE STORMS ARE BRINGING HEAVY RAIN, WINDS
UP TO 60MPH, AND SMALL HAIL. CLOUD BASES FOR THESE STORMS ARE
BETWEEN 4-7KFT. AFTER THESE STORMS PUSH EAST, EACH TERMINAL WILL SEE
A 3-4 HOUR BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THESE STORMS WILL STEADILY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR
BY SUNRISE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
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