513
FXUS63 KLMK 070010
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
810 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND SUNDAY.
* 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
UPDATED AVIATION DISSCUSSION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 808 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
THE ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON,
ALONG WIH CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER THE STORMS MOVED
THROUGH NEVER ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH AS THE MCV
MOVED IN FROM WESTERN KY. BECAUSE THE SEVERE THREAT NEVER
REMATERIALIZED THIS EVENING, WE WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED TORNADO
WATCH 376.
SHOWERS AND A FEW GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AS THE MCV MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL KY. TO THE NORTH OF THE MCV CIRCULATION, A
DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN IN WHICH DROPPED
AN ESTIMATED 2 INCHES OR MORE OVER PARTS OF WASHINGTON AND ORANGE
COUNTIES IN INDIANA. THIS RESULTED IN SOME AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THESE SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK THIS EVENING SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MESOSCALE
ISSUED AT 527 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS AND THE FIRST WAVE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAS HELP TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER MOST OF CENTRAL KY. SBCAPE INSIDE TORNADO WATCH 376 IS AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG WITH 1000-500 J/KG EAST OF I-65 INTO THE BLUE GRASS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS AROUND 40-50 KTS WITH EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 100
M2/S2. RADAR HAS A STRONG CELL OVER MCLEAN/MUHLENBERG HEADING INTO
OHIO. THIS SEAMS TO BE THE MAIN AND IMMEDIATE THREAT OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. IT APPEARS TO BE APART OF A WEAK MCV THAT IS GOING TO
WORK ACROSS THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS A LOT OF STRATIFORM RAIN OUT AHEAD
AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS
WESTERN KY INTO WESTERN TN. THIS MAY BE ANOTHER FEATURE WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH LATER THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
2000-3000J/KG OF SBCAPE, A BROKEN AGITATED CU FIELD, AND WEAK
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT OF THIS
ENVIRONMENT. THESE STORMS ARE BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS, SMALL HAIL,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND MINOR FLOODING. AFTER THESE STORMS PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA, WE WILL SEE A 2-3 HOUR BREAK BEFORE THE MCV MOVING
OUT OF THE OZARKS ENTERS THE REGION.
AS THE REMNANT MCS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION, A 25-30KT LLJ WILL MOVE OVER INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
GOOD ROTATION IS VISIBLE WITH THE MCS ON SATELLITE AND RADAR,
THEREFORE, COUPLED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR, THIS WILL INCREASE THE
BRIEF, SPIN-UP TORNADO THREAT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION WITH THE NEXT WAVE. LOOKING AT SATELLITE,
THERE ARE GOOD BREAKS IN THE CLOUD WHICH WILL HELP THE ENVIRONMENT
TO RECOVER FROM THE FIRST WAVE. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH ON
SEEING DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, A SPIN-UP TORNADO, AND MINOR FLOODING.
THE MCS WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH SUNSET. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN
TO SHOWERS AND PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE.
MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MOVES ALONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING GUSTY
TO DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND MINOR FLOODING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ABOUT 1000J/KG OF SBCAPE, VERY WEAK SHEAR, AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WITH PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES. THIS WAVE WILL LAST INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING AND PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
ON SUNDAY, BETTER TROUGHING WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION PICKING UP
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND PUSHING IT SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MONDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND
SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MID NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE THROUGH.
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN IN THE SHORT AND LONG TERM, WE ARE
LOOKING AT A TOTAL QPF OF 1.5 - 2.5 INCHES. SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE 3-
3.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH TRAINING STORMS.
BEYOND TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN THIS EVENING AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WILL LINGER
AROUND SDF AS A WEAK COMPLEX MOVES EASTWARD. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES
IT WILL TURN DRY BUT WE WILL SEE LOWERING CIG WITH MVFR TO IFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT INTO THE START OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
WHILE CLOUDS MAY LINGER WE WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO VFR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
MESOSCALE...BTN
UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...BTN
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