532
FXUS63 KLMK 070522 CCA
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
122 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND SUNDAY.
* 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2025
CONVECTION COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS SOUTHERN IN EARLY THIS
MORNING. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND WILL BE
LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE DOWN THE I-64 CORRIDOR TOWARD
THE LEXINGTON METRO AREA. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. SOME OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS DOWN ACROSS THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
2000-3000J/KG OF SBCAPE, A BROKEN AGITATED CU FIELD, AND WEAK
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT OF THIS
ENVIRONMENT. THESE STORMS ARE BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS, SMALL HAIL,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND MINOR FLOODING. AFTER THESE STORMS PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA, WE WILL SEE A 2-3 HOUR BREAK BEFORE THE MCV MOVING
OUT OF THE OZARKS ENTERS THE REGION.
AS THE REMNANT MCS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION, A 25-30KT LLJ WILL MOVE OVER INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
GOOD ROTATION IS VISIBLE WITH THE MCS ON SATELLITE AND RADAR,
THEREFORE, COUPLED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR, THIS WILL INCREASE THE
BRIEF, SPIN-UP TORNADO THREAT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION WITH THE NEXT WAVE. LOOKING AT SATELLITE,
THERE ARE GOOD BREAKS IN THE CLOUD WHICH WILL HELP THE ENVIRONMENT
TO RECOVER FROM THE FIRST WAVE. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH ON
SEEING DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, A SPIN-UP TORNADO, AND MINOR FLOODING.
THE MCS WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH SUNSET. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN
TO SHOWERS AND PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE.
MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MOVES ALONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING GUSTY
TO DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND MINOR FLOODING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ABOUT 1000J/KG OF SBCAPE, VERY WEAK SHEAR, AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WITH PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES. THIS WAVE WILL LAST INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING AND PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
ON SUNDAY, BETTER TROUGHING WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION PICKING UP
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND PUSHING IT SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
MONDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND
SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MID NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE THROUGH.
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN IN THE SHORT AND LONG TERM, WE ARE
LOOKING AT A TOTAL QPF OF 1.5 - 2.5 INCHES. SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE 3-
3.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH TRAINING STORMS.
BEYOND TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN AREA FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO
BETWEEN KSDF AND KLEX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM....SRW
AVIATION.....MJ
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