011
FXUS63 KLMK 080517
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
117 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
FIRST MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ACROSS FAR NE KY
AND INTO SOUTHERN OH EARLY THIS MORNING. WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW, A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS REGION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THAT BATCH OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER,
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS SLOW AND WE HAVE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WITH VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS. RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3"/HR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS REGION. THIS MAY RESULT
IN A ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT AS THIS AREA HAS EXPERIENCED RAINFALL
EARLIER THIS EVENING.
FOCUSING BACK TO THE WEST, A VERY EVIDENT CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV
JUST EAT OF STL HAS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN IL AND INTO WESTERN KY. REGIONAL VWPS FROM PAH/HPX/LVX
SHOW AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION. VWP HODOGRAPHS
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE LARGER THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS
WESTERN KY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST HRRR DATA SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY HOLDING TOGETHER ACROSS CENTRAL KY PASSING LARGELY BETWEEN
LOUISVILLE AND BOWLING GREEN. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE OF THE
HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT, OVERALL INSTABILITY
PROFILE AND WEAKER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST KY LOOKS TO LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WE'LL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THINGS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
UPDATED AT 1004 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2025
WELL...THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN QUITE INTERESTING AS A MINIATURE
SUPERCELL TRACKED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KY, PRODUCING CONSISTENT
BROAD ROTATION AND A WALL CLOUD WHICH WAS CAPTURED BY SEVERAL
SPOTTERS ACROSS BRECKINRIDGE AND HARDIN COUNTY. AN RFD
SURGE/OCCLUSION AROUND 9 PM SEEMS TO HAVE WEAKENED THAT CELL, WITH
OUR ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO THE FLOODING THREAT EAST OF I-65 IN THE
BLUEGRASS REGION. A BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
PIVOT ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AS RESIDUAL SPIN FROM AN MCV IS NOTED ON
KLVX VELOCITY AS WELL AS ASOS/AWOS WIND OBSERVATIONS. THIS BAND OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IS LOCATED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS AS WELL AS ENHANCED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCV. RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS, PW VALUES
APPROACHING 2" AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY,
EFFICIENT RAINFALL, WITH RATES OF 2-3"/HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST CELLS.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH THIS WAVE
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. WOULD EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THIS WAVE TO BE ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH SHORT-
RANGE MODEL PROGS DO SHOW SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WAVE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY. WITH THAT BEING SAID,
THE NEAR-SFC LAYER SHOULD BE FAIRLY STABLE, WITH MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY IN SOUNDING PROFILES SHOWING UP ABOVE 700 MB, SO
OVERALL, THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 AND IN AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2025
TROUGHING ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND THE
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT IS STILL DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ON RADAR AS A DENSE CU FIELD
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, AN MCS WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL MOSTLY PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION, HOWEVER,
SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY PASS ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER BRINGING
GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. NORTH
OF THIS LINE, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 4PM ET AND
QUICKLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, A DEFORMATION
BAND MAY SET UP OVER I-64 AND NORTH BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND A
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
GIVEN THE UNPRECEDENTED CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY SO FAR, TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE WIDESPREAD LOW 80S. FOR THIS
REASON, INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON. WILL STILL
SEE SOME SBCAPE JUST UNDER 1000J/KG, HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY WEAK AND
INHIBITING STORM ORGANIZATION. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE
SUN SETS AND INSTABILITY WANES. SHOWERS AND STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG
THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL LAST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.8-2.1 INCHES, THERE IS A VERY TROPICAL AIRMASS
OVER THE OVER THE REGION BRINGING AMPLE MOISTURE TO LITTLE LIFT AND
INSTABILITY. THIS AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS THAT SAW EFFICIENT RAIN YESTERDAY. QPF THROUGH
TONIGHT IS 0.5-1.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
IN THE EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND PATCHY DENSE
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION.
ON SUNDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT OUT OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THROUGH THE REGION AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THIS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING MONDAY. ANOTHER 0.5-1.0 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING THE REGION TO
DRY OUT AND CALM CONDITIONS TO RETURN. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION, WHICH WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY NIGHT - LATE WEEK...
LATE WEEK, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
CURRENTLY THE AREA IS BETWEEN TWO CONVECTIVE MCVS THAT ARE ROTATING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. FIRST MCV IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST OH
WITH THE SECOND ONE COMING OUT OF THE ST. LOUIS AREA.
IN THE NEAR TERM, BATCH OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
INTO KLEX IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH, AND THIS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TERMINAL BY 08/08Z. ELSEWHERE, WILL BE
WATCHING A BAND OF CONVECTION COMING OUT OF SOUTHERN IL AND INTO
WESTERN KY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM MCV. RIGHT NOW, THIS LOOKS TO
PASS BETWEEN KSDF AND KBWG.
EXPECT CIGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE LATER THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS WITH A RETURN TO
VFR. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE ST. LOUIS MCV
AS IT PASSES. LOOK FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 18-22KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM....SRW
AVIATION.....MJ
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