827
FXUS63 KLMK 080709
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE THREAT OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS QUITE LOW.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN AREAS EAST OF I-65.
* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES. AREA RADARS CONTINUED TO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE
NOTED, ONE ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV. A SECOND MCV WAS NOTED JUST SOUTHEAST OF
ST. LOUIS. THE ST. LOUIS MCV WAS DRIVING THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
AT THE MOMENT ACROSS WESTERN KY, NEAR OWENSBORO.
AREA RADAR VWPS WERE SHOWING AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NEAR OWENSBORO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE KEEP THIS CONVECTION GOING FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS QUITE LOW HERE. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYER AND EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PROCESSES, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR MOTION
AND THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HEAD EASTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF THE US 60 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNRISE LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
FOR TODAY, UPSTREAM MCV IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. REMNANT CONVECTIVE WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL KY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING, SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OUT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
MAINLY UPPER 70S AND A FEW LOWER 80S.
FOR TONIGHT, CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MN WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DIGGING TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND MAINLY
AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-65 TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY,
WE'LL GET SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE
RECENT MODEL RUNS, LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP 900-1500
J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
CORES. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOOK TO PUSH EASTWARD
OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH A VERY PLEASANT AIRMASS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S IN
THE WEST, WITH LOW-MID 50S IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL BOUNCE BACK A
BIT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BY MID-LATE WEEK, THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A GENERAL ZONAL
PATTERN WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH MAY DEEPEN A BIT AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWED PRECIPITATION ONSET WITH
THURSDAY LOOKING A BIT MORE DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER, FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS (SOME STRONG) AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 83-88 DEGREE RANGE WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
CURRENTLY THE AREA IS BETWEEN TWO CONVECTIVE MCVS THAT ARE ROTATING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. FIRST MCV IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST OH
WITH THE SECOND ONE COMING OUT OF THE ST. LOUIS AREA.
IN THE NEAR TERM, BATCH OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
INTO KLEX IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH, AND THIS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TERMINAL BY 08/08Z. ELSEWHERE, WILL BE
WATCHING A BAND OF CONVECTION COMING OUT OF SOUTHERN IL AND INTO
WESTERN KY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM MCV. RIGHT NOW, THIS LOOKS TO
PASS BETWEEN KSDF AND KBWG.
EXPECT CIGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE LATER THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS WITH A RETURN TO
VFR. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE ST. LOUIS MCV
AS IT PASSES. LOOK FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 18-22KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
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