421
FXUS63 KLMK 081048
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
648 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE THREAT OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS QUITE LOW.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN AREAS EAST OF I-65.
* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES. AREA RADARS CONTINUED TO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE
NOTED, ONE ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV. A SECOND MCV WAS NOTED JUST SOUTHEAST OF
ST. LOUIS. THE ST. LOUIS MCV WAS DRIVING THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
AT THE MOMENT ACROSS WESTERN KY, NEAR OWENSBORO.
AREA RADAR VWPS WERE SHOWING AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NEAR OWENSBORO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE KEEP THIS CONVECTION GOING FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS QUITE LOW HERE. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYER AND EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PROCESSES, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR MOTION
AND THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HEAD EASTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF THE US 60 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNRISE LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
FOR TODAY, UPSTREAM MCV IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. REMNANT CONVECTIVE WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL KY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING, SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OUT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
MAINLY UPPER 70S AND A FEW LOWER 80S.
FOR TONIGHT, CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MN WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DIGGING TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND MAINLY
AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-65 TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY,
WE'LL GET SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE
RECENT MODEL RUNS, LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP 900-1500
J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
CORES. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOOK TO PUSH EASTWARD
OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH A VERY PLEASANT AIRMASS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S IN
THE WEST, WITH LOW-MID 50S IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL BOUNCE BACK A
BIT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BY MID-LATE WEEK, THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A GENERAL ZONAL
PATTERN WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH MAY DEEPEN A BIT AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWED PRECIPITATION ONSET WITH
THURSDAY LOOKING A BIT MORE DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER, FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS (SOME STRONG) AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 83-88 DEGREE RANGE WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
REMNANT MCV WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AHEAD OF IT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE SEEN. LOOK FOR CIGS TO
IMPROVE BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT THIS MORNING BUT INCREASE OUT
OF THE WEST DURING THE DAY AND WILL BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SPARSE TO TIME INTO THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS/STORMS TO
KHNB/KSDF TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
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