318
FXUS63 KLMK 090215
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1015 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY IN AREAS EAST OF I-65.
* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1.0 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
* MID WEEK BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER BEFORE CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
IT IS A QUIET EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INDICATED ON LATEST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 02Z, WITH A FEW MID 70S READINGS IN URBAN
AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOW-TO-MID 60S AND CLEAR SKIES,
PATCHY FOG REMAINS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER TODAY.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WEST OF I-65 AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE WEST AS ONGOING
CONVECTION WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWESTERN
IN. THESE STORMS HAVE FIRED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WITH A
POOL OF 1000-3000 J/KG CAPE EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS TOWARD THE
WABASH VALLEY. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IN SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS THAT
THIS AREA OF HIGHER CAPE WILL CLOSE OFF AS STORMS PUSH EAST, AND
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED
AS IT CROSSES INTO OUR SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES AFTER 07Z. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER ARE LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, ANY STORMS
SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS THEY PRESS TOWARD THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY AROUND
DAWN.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 UNTIL THE
MID-MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOWER 60S IN THE COOLER/RURAL AREAS AND UPPER
60S IN THE WARMER/URBAN AREAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
THE REMNANT MCV IS PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A LINE OF MODERATE SHOWERS THROUGH OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. AS THIS MCV CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST, SKIES WILL
STEADILY THIN AND LIFT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THIN UPPER SKY COVER WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED AMPLE RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE EFFICIENT COOLING TONIGHT BRINGING LOW TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WIDESPREAD 60S.
IN THE EARLY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST MOVING SOUTHEAST. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH. THE LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AROUND 12Z. TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING OVER THE REGION AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF I-65. SBCAPE OVER THIS REGION WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT
1200-1400J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON AND THERE WILL BE ABOUT 30-35KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR, ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN STORMS FOR MARGINAL
ORGANIZATION. SCATTERED STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ALONG WITH HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS QUITE
WEAK, THEREFORE THE TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW. THE LINE OF SHOWERS
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNSET.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGHING WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
THEN WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO THE MID-UPPER 80S AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO GROW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-
UPPER 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH URBAN AREAS IN THE LOW 60S.
VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BY LATE WEEK, THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE MESSY WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION, RIDGING TO THE SOUTH, AND A WAVE FORMING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE MAY DEEPEN SOME AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUMP IN
GULF MOISTURE BRINGING PWATS UP TO 2.0 INCHES AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
SCATTERED CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WESTERLY WINDS ALSO BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE S/SW AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER TODAY. ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING AT LEAST 1-2 WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD APPROACH HNB AND SDF IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, BRINGING
LOWERED CIGS AND VIS. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS, WOULD EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST. TOMORROW AFTERNOON, EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WAVE OF SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY AT BWG, LEX, AND
RGA. GUSTY WINDS AND IFR VIS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS
IS STILL LOW-MEDIUM.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...CSG
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