344
FXUS63 KLMK 090702
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED THIS
MORNING IN AREA WEST OF I-65.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EAST OF I-65. DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.
* DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2025
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. ACROSS WESTERN KY AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA, MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING OFF
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WAS NOTED. UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES,
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW, SOME UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WERE STILL NOTED
OVER FAR WESTERN KY.
AREA RADARS WERE QUIET ACROSS OUR PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER,
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
IL INTO SE MO AND FAR WKY. RECENT VOLUME SCANS OUT OF PAH/VWX
RADARS SHOW THE CONVECTION BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH A GUST
FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CONVECTION. FAVORABLE VWP
PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WERE PRESENT IN THE PAH VWP.
HOWEVER, THIS CONVECTION IS TRANSVERSING A WEDGE OF INSTABILITY
MAXIMIZED NEAR THE OH/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE. DEWPOINTS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AS YOU MOVE FURTHER INTO WKY SO THIS CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO DIMINISH INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT IT MAY
BRING SOME RAINFALL TO OUR NW AND FAR WESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE, DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNRISE WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S. A FEW VALLEY SPOTS
OUT EAST MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IF THEY CAN SUFFICIENTLY
DECOUPLE.
FOR TODAY, ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/SE MO/WKY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE. THIS
CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT APPROACHES THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY
MID-LATE MORNING. AS THIS CONVECTION PUSHES EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR, MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH MARGINAL SHEAR
PROFILES. IN GENERAL, THERE IS A RISK OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF I-65. THE STRONGEST CELLS
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE. SOME ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT
ONLY WITHIN THE STRONGEST CORES. HIGHS ON THE DAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 70S, THOUGH A FEW SPOTS DOWN NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND COULD
HIT 80 PRIOR TO STORMS MOVING IN.
FOR TONIGHT, ONGOING AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST
OF OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT. HOWEVER, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PIVOTING INTO THE
REGION, ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH ALTITUDE SMOKE WILL LIKELY PIVOT INTO
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN HIGH LEVEL
HAZE. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S.
IN THE EARLY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST MOVING SOUTHEAST. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH. THE LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AROUND 12Z. TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING OVER THE REGION AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF I-65. SBCAPE OVER THIS REGION WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT
1200-1400J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON AND THERE WILL BE ABOUT 30-35KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR, ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN STORMS FOR MARGINAL
ORGANIZATION. SCATTERED STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ALONG WITH HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS QUITE
WEAK, THEREFORE THE TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW. THE LINE OF SHOWERS
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNSET.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY BUT HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE LATE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL LARGELY BE IN THE UPPER 70S, THOUGH A FEW SPOTS
MAY TOUCH 80. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S. AS THICKNESS VALUES RISE ON WEDNESDAY, SO WILL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 80-85
DEGREE RANGE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO WARM BACK INTO THE MIDDLE-UPPER 80S.
OVERALL, GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR EARLY JUNE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT
MORE COMPLEX. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF BY
LATE FRIDAY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST-
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DECENT FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE GULF WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BACK TO NEARLY 2 INCHES BY
SAT/SUN. WITH THE UPPER TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE REGION, PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK LIKELY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING, WE'LL LIKELY GENERATE
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN QUITE
WEAK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT
STRONGER BY SUNDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME STORMS APPROACHING
SEVERE LIMITS. THE LARGER ISSUE HERE WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE HYDRO ISSUES IN SPOTS.
LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THIS PERIOD TO AVERAGE IN THE MIDDLE 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2025
VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL START OFF THIS TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND ONGOING CONVECTION
WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING AFFECTING KSDF AND POSSIBLY KBWG. AS THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BY MID-LATE MORNING, ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN KY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS FORECAST, HAVE GENERALLY ATTEMPTED TO TIME IN
THINGS WITH A BIT MORE DETAIL. ACTUAL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG
IT, THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS TO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAF. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT VERY GOOD AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
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