272
FXUS63 KLMK 231745
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
145 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
* HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MULTIPLE DAYS OF
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY CAN RESULT IN HEAT-RELATED
HEALTH IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
WE REMAIN UNDER A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN THAT FEATURES BOTH A
STRONG MID-LEVEL AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA
FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY DRY, HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CREATING HEAT
INDEX VALUES ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOW/MID TRIPLE DIGITS WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS GETTING ABOVE 105. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST TWO
AFTERNOONS, WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY, WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY LOCATION WILL BE
ALONG TO SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS. OVERNIGHT FEATURES LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF RELIEF AS DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S AND LOWS FOLLOWING
SUIT WITH LITTLE TO WIND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN AS WE CONTINUE INTO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE
EASTERN US REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, ALONG WITH STRONG SFC
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY,
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY, HOT AND HUMID WEATHER DURING THE DAY AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS. AS WE'VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS, THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
LOW/MID 90S, DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WHILE SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 105 DEGREES FOR 3 HOURS, GIVEN THAT THIS CONTINUES TO BE A MULTI-
DAY EVENT WITH CONSISTENT HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 DEGREES, THIS
FITS AS AN IMPACT BASED ADVISORY. AS WAS POINTED OUT IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, IF CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE WITH DRIER WEATHER
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
IN TIME AND POTENTIALLY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR CWA.
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD TIME. THIS LOW MAY
UNDERCUT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER US AND SEND THE CORE OF IT
FURTHER WESTWARD WITH TIME. AS THIS OCCURS, THERE IS SOME MODEL
DATA SIGNALING THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD BRING US SOME RELIEF FROM THE
CURRENT HEAT. AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LOOKS
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING EACH AFTERNOON THOUGH WIND
SHEAR VALUES REMAIN EXCEPTIONALLY WEAK. SO AT BEST, JUST SOME
ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE.
WITH THE CORE OF THE RIDGE PUSHING WESTWARD, WE WILL SEE HEIGHTS
FALL ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY ALLOW US TO COOL OFF SLIGHTLY.
HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S. TRENDS IN THE DEWPOINTS SUGGEST LOWER VALUES WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S, WHICH WILL STILL ALLOW
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
BESIDES SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG TONIGHT AT BWG, LEX, AND RGA, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. THE HEAT WILL LIKELY
CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KYZ023>043-
045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR INZ076>079-
083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...KDW
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