340
FXUS63 KLMK 232335
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
735 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* HEAT ADVISORY EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO MULTIPLE
DAYS OF HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 TO 105 AND HEAT INDICES ONLY FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, INCLUDING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE IS BEING FUNNELED
NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS IS PUSHING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 1.6" OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AS DEW POINTS REACH INTO THE MID 70S. LOTS OF
SUNSHINE HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S. INSTABILITY IN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAVE CAUSED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. MOST OF THESE HAVE BEEN BETWEEN FAYETTE AND GRAYSON
COUNTIES AND OVER THE URBAN AREAS OF LEXINGTON AND LOUISVILLE. HEAT
INDICES RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO 105 ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
TONIGHT, ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL WARMING, AND EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 70S.
SOME AREAS, INCLUDING THOSE THAT SEE RAIN TODAY, WILL LIKELY SEE
LIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND NORTH THROUGH THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA
AND ON THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS REGION.
TOMORROW, EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS STRONG SUNSHINE LIFTS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 105.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
FROM WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY, EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO SENT MOISTURE OUR
WAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SUNNY DAYS WITH CUMULUS AND LIMITED RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES COULD TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER FALLING FROM THE
MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOW 90S BY THE WEEKEND. WE MIGHT EVEN
SEE THE UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY. THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A
COLD FRONT COULD POSSIBLY BRING SOME RELIEF AROUND TUESDAY.
WITH LITTLE EXPECTED CHANGE IN DAY TO DAY HEAT INDICES, THE HEAT
ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS, BUT THE EXTENT OF ANY SENSIBLE WX IMPACT
WILL BE BRIEFLY SHIFTING WINDS AT SDF. EVEN IF THAT DOES HAPPEN,
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED AS SPEEDS ARE JUST UNDER 10 KT. MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING AT LEX, BWG, AND RGA, WITH VFR EXPECTED
OTHERWISE.
WINDS GO LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN SET UP OUT OF THE SW AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TUE. WILL INCLUDE DIURNAL CU WITH BASES NEAR 4K-5K FEET, AND
WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON,
PROBABILITIES OF IMPACTING ANY OF THE TERMINALS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...RAS
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