400
FXUS63 KLMK 240448
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1248 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* HEAT ADVISORY EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO MULTIPLE
DAYS OF HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 TO 105 AND HEAT INDICES ONLY FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 843 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NE OF LOUISVILLE HAS PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED, LEAVING US WITH JUST A COUPLE OF ISOLATED CELLS EAST OF
I-75. THOSE SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT AND RAIN THEMSELVES OUT QUICKLY AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS NOW RAPIDLY LOST. AIR MASS IS STILL QUITE JUICY,
AND A STRAY SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY OVERNIGHT, BUT LACK
OF INSTABILITY OR ANY REAL FORCING WILL KEEP THE CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION. NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS WARM AND VERY MUGGY FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, INCLUDING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE IS BEING FUNNELED
NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS IS PUSHING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 1.6" OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AS DEW POINTS REACH INTO THE MID 70S. LOTS OF
SUNSHINE HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S. INSTABILITY IN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAVE CAUSED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. MOST OF THESE HAVE BEEN BETWEEN FAYETTE AND GRAYSON
COUNTIES AND OVER THE URBAN AREAS OF LEXINGTON AND LOUISVILLE. HEAT
INDICES RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO 105 ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
TONIGHT, ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL WARMING, AND EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 70S.
SOME AREAS, INCLUDING THOSE THAT SEE RAIN TODAY, WILL LIKELY SEE
LIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND NORTH THROUGH THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA
AND ON THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS REGION.
TOMORROW, EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS STRONG SUNSHINE LIFTS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 105.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
FROM WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY, EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO SENT MOISTURE OUR
WAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SUNNY DAYS WITH CUMULUS AND LIMITED RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES COULD TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER FALLING FROM THE
MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOW 90S BY THE WEEKEND. WE MIGHT EVEN
SEE THE UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY. THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A
COLD FRONT COULD POSSIBLY BRING SOME RELIEF AROUND TUESDAY.
WITH LITTLE EXPECTED CHANGE IN DAY TO DAY HEAT INDICES, THE HEAT
ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM AS SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP WITH SOME REDUCED VIS FOR BWG/LEX FOR NOW WENT WITH MVFR
REDUCED VIS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS BUT
THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THAT THERE COULD BE LOWER VIS IN
SPOTS. OTHER THAN THAT, MORE OF THE SAME WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE. VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES,
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO
THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN BUT THE
PROBABILITY APPEARS TO BE UNDER 20 PERCENT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
UPDATE...RAS
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...BTN
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