156
FXUS63 KLMK 260501
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
101 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* HEAT ADVISORY EXTENDING THROUGH THURSDAY.
* COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND LOWER
DEW POINTS BY WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 928 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE LMK CWA. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. LOOK FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT SOLIDLY IN
THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
CURRENTLY, THE UPPER HIGH SITS CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
MOISTURE UP THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, RESULTING IN HIGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. DIURNAL WARMING HAS PUSHED
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THE KENTUCKY MESONET
SHOWS HEAT INDICES ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY RANGING FROM 97 TO 105.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE,
BUT LIMITED SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUB-SEVERE.
TONIGHT, ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL WARMING, AND EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN VALLEYS AND BODIES OF WATER.
TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103. DUE TO THIS, THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW (THURSDAY). THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH, CAUSING UPPER FLOW TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL, NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE UPPER HIGH, OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY, WILL BEING SLIDING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
OVER FLORIDA TO SLIDE NORTHWEST TOWARDS GEORGIA. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AS WAVES AROUND THE LOW WORK
ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH DIURNAL WARMING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
FRIDAY TO MONDAY, EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER BY THIS WEEKEND, FALLING FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON FRIDAY TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE
WEEKEND. THE COOLER OF THESE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE EAST
OVER THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND REGIONS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO SENT MOISTURE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN.
TUESDAY, MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY GOOD AS THE
GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO FORM A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA, BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE WEAK, BUT STRONGER WIND
GUSTS BECOME MORE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HIGHS FALL INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 BEFORE FALLING DEW POINTS
ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HEAT ADVISORY COULD BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY, BUT IT MAY BE
PULLED BACK CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 65 AS HEAT INDICES SLOWLY BEGIN TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGIONS. THIS DECISION ALSO DEPENDS ON NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
MUGGY AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT, WITH SCT
CIRRUS OVERHEAD. BASED ON BOTH PERSISTENCE AND GUIDANCE, MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT BWG BUT THAT IS A FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW ROGJT AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE BOARD WITH AFTERNOON CU AND LIGHT
WSW WINDS, BACKING TO DUE AOUTH AFTER SUNSET.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...RAS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page