267
FXUS63 KLMK 270527
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
127 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* HEAT ADVISORY EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES REMAIN.
* COLD FRONT BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER HUMIDITY BY
WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 848 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, ALTHOUGH
WILL NOTE THAT THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FLOATING AROUND OUT THERE, AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SHOULD ANYTHING
OVERCOME THE NEAR SURFACE STABILITY BEGINNING TO SET UP WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SO, EXPECTING A MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES GIVEN SOME
LINGERING TRIGGERS AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. DID WANT TO MENTION
THAT THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD
DEVELOP OVER TN AND WORK NW INTO OUR ARE OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THAT SCENARIO FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
IN MOST AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
TEMPERATURES ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF 90, BUT A FEW AREAS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S FROM RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY WORKING OVER
THE AREA. THIS HAS PRODUCED A SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE
CONTINUE TO CUT ACROSS THE AREA, KICKING UP NEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION HAS HAD LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH (DUE
TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE) AND TENDS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED,
PRODUCING WINDS UP TO AROUND 30-35 MPH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T EXPECTED.
TONIGHT, UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WEST TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, PUSHING THE UPPER
TROUGH, OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, NORTHWARD UNTIL UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP FUNNELING MOISTURES NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO RECOVER AND INCREASE TO 1.6 TO 2 INCHES BY FRIDAY
MORNING. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
TOMORROW, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MOIST
AIR. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN
MOST PLACES. A FEW PLACES COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S, AND WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. THESE VALUES ARE TRENDING LOWER THAN
TODAY'S HEAT INDICES. THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED AGAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY FOR WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST TIME. A LOT OF MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE AREA, SO AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. DON'T BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS TODAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SATURDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SENT MOISTURE UP THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT RIDING EAST ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW, NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SATURDAY TO MONDAY, EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ONGOING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE ROCKIES AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST COAST. NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CWA, BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN AS THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS, SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN LOW. HIGHS FALL INTO THE MID
80S TO NEAR 90 BEFORE FALLING DEW POINTS ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY,
FALLING INTO THE MID 60S. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
QUIET NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH, PERHAPS GOING VARIABLE
OR EVEN CALM AT BWG. SOME QUESTION AROUND FOG POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY
AFTER GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT SDF LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THAT SDF IS OUR LEAST FOG-PRONE TERMINAL AND WE STILL HAVE A
LIGHT SE BREEZE AND FAIRLY WIDE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD, WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VIS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW TO NEAR 10 KT BY MIDDAY, WITH SCT
DIURNAL CU. EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION, SO AT LEAST A
PROB30 IS WARRANTED. TRIED TO FOCUS IN ON THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
STORMS, BUT INITIATION COULD BE A BIT ON THE EARLIER SIDE. THE PROB
GROUPS WILL INCLUDE 3SM VIS, BUT BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. AFTER SUNSET LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND MID-LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...RAS
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