015
FXUS63 KLMK 271722
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
122 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
* LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
CLOUD FIELD CONGESTED PRETTY QUICK IN THE MIDDLE OF A LOCAL MAX IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER, PER LATEST GOES SOUNDER DATA. STORMS SHOT UP
QUICK IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH PEAK IN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND DECENT ENOUGH MID-LEVEL ONES. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS A
CHANCE FOR MICROBURSTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, AND THE FIRST STORM OF
THE DAY SHOT UP QUICK AND PROVIDED A 45 MPH GUST, PER THE HART
COUNTY KENTUCKY MESONET STATION. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WILL
CALIBRATE THE TALLER CORES FOR PEAK WIND GUSTS AND ISSUE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS VERSUS SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AS WARRANTED.
AS FOR THE ZONE FORECAST, CONVECTIVE INITIATION WAS AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED, SO ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH BETTER WITH CURRENT
OBS.
ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
A LITTLE COOLER START TO THE MORNING AT MANY SITES. GOES SOUNDER
DATA SHOWS PLUME OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER WESTERN KY, BUT
WITH A NOTCH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY RIGHT NOW. THIS NOTCH SHOWS UP IN
HREF MODEL FORECASTS AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT SHOULD MEAN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORM COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN KY. A RELATIVE LULL, THAT IS, ISOLATED
COVERAGE, LOOKS TO BE IN THE LEX/SDF CORRIDOR. ONCE AGAIN, NO REAL
SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION, SO SHOULD BE A NICE DAY TO WATCH FOR
MICROBURSTS FROM THE TALLER CORES THAT DEVELOP.
HOPEFULLY THE LAST DAY FOR THE HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE BOARD TOMORROW, SO THAT
SHOULD LIMIT VALUES TO UNDER 100. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP
CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME AS IS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SLIGHTLY WEAKENED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS DRAPED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE LOW
LEVELS, AND WE'LL HAVE FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THURSDAY,
PERHAPS WITH A BIT LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STILL LOOKS LIKE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, AND WHILE SHEAR IS TOO WEAK TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE WX, THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR YOUR
TYPICAL PULSE STORM HAZARDS, I.E. GUSTY OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
HEAT ADVISORY CARRIES ON FOR ONE MORE DAY, AS TEMPS WILL RISE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND CRACK 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS BEFORE NOON.
THERE IS A SUFFICIENT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 100+ HEAT INDEX
VALUES BEFORE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CAN PROVIDE ANY RELIEF.
ANY STORMS SHOULD FADE FAIRLY QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET, LEAVING BEHIND
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. WILL HANG ON TO A 20 POP IN QUITE A
FEW SPOTS JUST BECAUSE OF THE TENDENCY FOR SUCH A JUICY AIR MASS TO
SPARK AN ISOLATED NIGHTTIME STORM OR TWO.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
UNSETTLED PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND A JUICY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE, SUPPORTING
MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT THE
BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT WILL BE MOSTLY GARDEN-
VARIETY CONVECTION AS SHEAR IS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT SEVERE WX, AND
THE BETTER FOCUS FOR TRAINING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE TO OUR
NORTH. COULD STILL SEE A STRAY PULSE STORM THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
ANOTHER PEAK IN PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
SHARPER UPPER TROF FINALLY DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOLIDLY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THAT SYSTEM, WITH
SEVERE RISK LIMITED TO PULSE STORM HAZARDS AS THE STRONGER WIND
FIELDS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA, WITH NW FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST HELPING TO BUILD A BUBBLE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL HAVE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
BUT MANAGEABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED DIURNAL POP-UPS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY BUT STARTING TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
CURRENT LINE OF STORMS ACTIVE FROM KBWG TO WEST OR KLEX/KRGA. SOME
ANVIL DEBRIS MOVING TOWARDS KSDF MAY DELAY ONSET THERE A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD QUIET THINGS DOWN THIS
EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY WILL BE LIGHT OR A LITTLE FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD FIRE UP LATE MORNING
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
UPDATE...RJS
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...RJS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page