008
FXUS63 KLMK 280741
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
341 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
* LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
MUGGY TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE
TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TODAY AS IT IS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE WEAK UPPER FLOW. LOOK FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID-
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET OR JUST AFTER. LACK OF SHEAR
DOES NOT SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT A FEW PULSE STORMS COULD
PUT OUT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING IF ANY LOCATIONS SEE REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL.
MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT THE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW 70 IN
ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
MOIST AND AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE AT
LEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS IN PLAY BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN PULSE
STORMS. ANY LOCATION THAT SEES REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
SUBJECT TO FLOODING. BY MONDAY WE COULD ALSO SEE A LOW-END SVR
THREAT, MAINLY NORTH OF I-64, AS CAPE CRANKS UP NEAR 1500 J/KG AND A
BAND OF STRONGER WESTERLIES RUNS FROM ILLINOIS ACROSS INDIANA INTO
OHIO. STILL A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST DETERMINED BY THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE SHEAR, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO
IN SOUTHERN INDIANA OR EVEN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. GUSTY WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE STILL THE MAIN THREATS.
FROPA ON TUESDAY WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LESS HUMID AIR MASS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL STILL RUN NEAR NORMAL BY DAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL BY NIGHT, BUT DEWPOINTS WILL RUN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...NOT NEARLY AS OPPRESSIVE AS THE PAST WEEK, BUT YOU'LL STILL
KNOW IT'S SUMMER. WED-THU WILL BE MAINLY DRY DAYS, WITH ISOLATED
STORMS BACK IN PLAY FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY
STRETCH, AS HIT-AND-MISS STORMS WILL BE MORE MISS THAN HIT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
CONVECTION DIMINISHED QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET, SO EXPECT THE BALANCE
OF THE OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE. ONLY OVERNIGHT CONCERN IS FOG
POTENTIAL AT BWG GIVEN THE GENEROUS AFTERNOON RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HITTING FOG AND AT THIS POINT, EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY UP AROUND 4-5 KT FROM THE SOUTH, LIMITING FOG POTENTIAL.
BY LATE MORNING WE WILL SEE THE TYPICAL VEERING TO SW WINDS AS WE
MIX DEEPER, BUT SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT. DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL
LIKELY BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN RECENT DAYS, AND WE COULD SEE A MID-
LEVEL CIG DEVELOP. WILL AGAIN HANDLE CONVECTION WITH A PROB30 IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH MENTION OF IFR VIS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS WILL REMAIN JUST BARELY ABOVE 3K FEET.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND MID/HIGH-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS SAT EVENING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...RAS
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