005
FXUS63 KLMK 281448
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1048 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
* LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND
IS MOVING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS WILL DRIFT INTO THE
FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AROUND NOON ET. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
MUGGY TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE
TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TODAY AS IT IS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE WEAK UPPER FLOW. LOOK FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID-
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET OR JUST AFTER. LACK OF SHEAR
DOES NOT SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT A FEW PULSE STORMS COULD
PUT OUT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING IF ANY LOCATIONS SEE REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL.
MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT THE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW 70 IN
ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
MOIST AND AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE AT
LEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS IN PLAY BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN PULSE
STORMS. ANY LOCATION THAT SEES REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
SUBJECT TO FLOODING. BY MONDAY WE COULD ALSO SEE A LOW-END SVR
THREAT, MAINLY NORTH OF I-64, AS CAPE CRANKS UP NEAR 1500 J/KG AND A
BAND OF STRONGER WESTERLIES RUNS FROM ILLINOIS ACROSS INDIANA INTO
OHIO. STILL A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST DETERMINED BY THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE SHEAR, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO
IN SOUTHERN INDIANA OR EVEN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. GUSTY WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE STILL THE MAIN THREATS.
FROPA ON TUESDAY WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LESS HUMID AIR MASS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL STILL RUN NEAR NORMAL BY DAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL BY NIGHT, BUT DEWPOINTS WILL RUN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...NOT NEARLY AS OPPRESSIVE AS THE PAST WEEK, BUT YOU'LL STILL
KNOW IT'S SUMMER. WED-THU WILL BE MAINLY DRY DAYS, WITH ISOLATED
STORMS BACK IN PLAY FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY
STRETCH, AS HIT-AND-MISS STORMS WILL BE MORE MISS THAN HIT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY AT ALL THE TERMINALS, WITH BWG THE ONLY
LINGERING QUESTION MARK. VIS THERE STARTED TO DROP AROUND 08-09Z,
BUT JUST ENOUGH STRATO-CU AND A LIGHT S-SW WIND PUT THE BRAKES ON
RADIATIONAL PROCESSES.
BY MIDDAY LOOK FOR SW WINDS JUST SHY OF 10 KT, WITH A MID-LEVEL CIG
MOVING IN FROM THE NW. STILL LOOKING FOR CU TO DEVELOP EVEN BENEATH
THAT MID DECK, BUT CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 4K
FEET. SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WON'T
BE MORE THAN SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AT ANY GIVEN TIME, AND ANY OR ALL
OF THE TERMINALS COULD STILL BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY. WILL HANDLE
CONVECTION WITH A PROB30, KEEPING CIGS JUST BARELY VFR BUT DROPPING
VIS INTO IFR DURING THE HEAVIEST RAIN.
ANY CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AROUND SUNSET, OR NO MORE THAN AN HOUR OR
SO LATER. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND MID-LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...RAS
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