585
FXUS63 KLMK 290802
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
402 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND MONDAY.
* LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, BUT
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
EXPECT TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH AT LEAST PATCHY FOG, MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT HAD THE HEAVIEST RAIN ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN SUCH LOCATIONS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO VIS
HAVE BEEN NOTED YET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, AND LIKELY HANDLE FOG
AREAS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS, AS COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NOT
BE SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY.
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, LEAVING PLENTY
OF OPPORTUNITY TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMP
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE, EVEN IF IT TAKES A BIT LONGER
TO GET THERE. LOOK FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP, PERHAPS WITH A
BIT LESS COVERAGE THAN SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED STORMS
GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR, BUT THIS ENVIRONMENT IS JUICY ENOUGH FOR
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND PERHAPS A PULSE WIND
THREAT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET AS INSTABILITY
IS LOST. FOR MONDAY WE'LL HAVE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND STARTING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MODERATE INSTABILITY, AND WHILE SHEAR INCREASES SLIGHTLY IT REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK. SPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR DAY 2, WHICH ON THE SURFACE MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS. THAT SAID,
EVEN IF CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED THE INSTABILITY ALONE
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A PULSE WIND THREAT.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
TUESDAY - THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY, ALLOWING DEW
POINTS TO DROP AND CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE COMFORTABLE WED-THU.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SKIES MOSTLY
SUNNY.
INDEPENDENCE DAY - NEXT WEEKEND...
UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND EASTERN CANADA,
ALLOWING FOR BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW AGAIN. TEMPS WILL TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL, AND HUMIDITY
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY, BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY RAMP UP NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE NOW, BUT
BWG COULD BRIEFLY HAVE MVFR VIS IN FOG AROUND SUNRISE. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THAT FORECAST BUT DIDN'T HIT THE VIS TOO HARD IN THIS
ONE.
LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST TO COVER AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION, WHICH WE'LL HANDLE WITH A PROB30 FOR BRIEF IFR VIS
DURING ANY STORMS THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL. MUCH LIKE THE
PAST COUPLE OF EVENINGS, LOOK FOR STORMS TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH
LIGHT SOUTH BREEZES AND MID-LEVEL CIGS FROM DEBRIS CLOUDS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...RAS
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