302
FXUS63 KLMK 050546
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
146 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUED THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT STILL
WITH REASONABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
* HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
THE BALANCE OF TODAY AND SATURDAY BOTH LOOK LIKE A "RINSE AND
REPEAT" FROM THURSDAY, AS SFC AND UPPER RIDGING REMAIN IN CONTROL.
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THESE
TEMPS ARE NOT DISSIMILAR TO THE WEEK-LONG HEAT WAVE IN LATE JUNE,
BUT THE HUMIDITY IS MUCH MORE MANAGEABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.
MOST AREAS WILL BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS, THOUGH
WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER SOMEWHERE IN THE
AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN 5 PERCENT SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PRECIP IN THE FIRST 4 PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.
ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT PHENOMENON IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT, OR SMOKE IN MANY LOCATIONS AS MUCH OF THE
VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL BE FIREWORKS SMOKE TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER
PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES, BUT THE STRONGER WESTERLIES REMAIN SOLIDLY TO
OUR NORTH AND KEEP US IN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS.
SUNDAY IS SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS WE WILL STILL HAVE TEMPS
REACHING THE MID 90S IN QUITE A FEW SPOTS, WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN
THE MID 60S. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DECREASE IN CAPPING WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WE'LL SEE SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAILY HIGH
TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST, BUT IT WILL FEEL JUST AS
STICKY IF NOT MORE SO, GIVEN DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP TOWARD 70.
PWAT VALUES GET NEAR 2 INCHES, SO STORMS ARE IN PLAY DAILY.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, SO PULSE STORMS COULD PUT
OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE SITES EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
LINGERING FIREWORK SMOKE/HAZE. A BRIEF DIP TO IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT SDF, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN IFR DURATION (IF ANY).
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS AS THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION GRADUALLY MIXES OUT. SFC WINDS WILL VEER S AND
THEN SSW THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE INCREASING TO 5-7 KTS. SCT CUMULUS
NEAR 5-6 KFT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...EBW
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