302  
FXUS63 KLMK 050546  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
146 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
* VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUED THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT STILL  
WITH REASONABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.  
 
* HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
THE BALANCE OF TODAY AND SATURDAY BOTH LOOK LIKE A "RINSE AND  
REPEAT" FROM THURSDAY, AS SFC AND UPPER RIDGING REMAIN IN CONTROL.  
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THESE  
TEMPS ARE NOT DISSIMILAR TO THE WEEK-LONG HEAT WAVE IN LATE JUNE,  
BUT THE HUMIDITY IS MUCH MORE MANAGEABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE  
LOWER/MID 60S.  
 
MOST AREAS WILL BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS, THOUGH  
WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER SOMEWHERE IN THE  
AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN 5 PERCENT SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY  
PRECIP IN THE FIRST 4 PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.  
 
ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT PHENOMENON IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE SOME  
PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT, OR SMOKE IN MANY LOCATIONS AS MUCH OF THE  
VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL BE FIREWORKS SMOKE TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL  
INVERSION.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER  
PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES, BUT THE STRONGER WESTERLIES REMAIN SOLIDLY TO  
OUR NORTH AND KEEP US IN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS.  
 
SUNDAY IS SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS WE WILL STILL HAVE TEMPS  
REACHING THE MID 90S IN QUITE A FEW SPOTS, WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN  
THE MID 60S. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DECREASE IN CAPPING WILL  
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.  
 
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WE'LL SEE SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAILY HIGH  
TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST, BUT IT WILL FEEL JUST AS  
STICKY IF NOT MORE SO, GIVEN DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP TOWARD 70.  
PWAT VALUES GET NEAR 2 INCHES, SO STORMS ARE IN PLAY DAILY.  
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, SO PULSE STORMS COULD PUT  
OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND  
LIGHTNING.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE SITES EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO  
LINGERING FIREWORK SMOKE/HAZE. A BRIEF DIP TO IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE  
QUESTION AT SDF, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN IFR DURATION (IF ANY).  
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS AS THE  
NOCTURNAL INVERSION GRADUALLY MIXES OUT. SFC WINDS WILL VEER S AND  
THEN SSW THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE INCREASING TO 5-7 KTS. SCT CUMULUS  
NEAR 5-6 KFT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  
 
 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...RAS  
LONG TERM...RAS  
AVIATION...EBW  
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