747  
FXUS63 KLMK 050717  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
317 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* HOT AND DRY TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.  
 
* HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
ANOTHER HOT, DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN. MID  
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHEAST OVER THE OHIO  
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE  
EASTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, WHILE TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE  
SLOWLY ROTATES NORTH OFF THE COAST OF GA AND SC. LIGHT SOUTHERLY  
FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY, THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE  
REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK THIS WEEKEND. SUPPOSE A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO  
COULD DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT COVERAGE  
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. WILL STICK WITH THE DRY FORECAST,  
WITH JUST SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN  
THE LOW TO MID 90S. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, HEAT  
INDICES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S. PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL  
BE 95-100. THE EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK TOOL SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK  
OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY FOR HEAT SENSITIVE GROUPS  
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION.  
 
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT  
LAKES TONIGHT, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO THE  
NORTHWEST. TONIGHT LOOKS DRY AND WARM, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S  
AND LOWER 70S FOR MOST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE  
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY, WEAKENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
IN THE REGION. THOUGH THE SYNOPTIC SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR  
NORTHWEST, INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND REDUCED CAPPING SUPPORT  
THE IDEA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. IT WON'T BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM TOPPING OUT IN THE  
LOW TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BRIEFLY TOPPING  
OUT NEAR 100.  
 
THE STALLING FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. A MOIST, HUMID AIRMASS AND WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WILL  
LIKELY PROVIDE US MULTIPLE DAYS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PEAK IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER  
THE EASTERN US FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH SOME AMPLIFICATION OF A  
WESTERN US RIDGE AND EASTERN US TROUGH LOOKS LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY. OVERALL, A FAIRLY TYPICAL MID-SUMMER PATTERN WITH WARM,  
HUMID AIR AND DAILY SCATTERED STORM CHANCES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE SITES EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO  
LINGERING FIREWORK SMOKE/HAZE. A BRIEF DIP TO IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE  
QUESTION AT SDF, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN IFR DURATION (IF ANY).  
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS AS THE  
NOCTURNAL INVERSION GRADUALLY MIXES OUT. SFC WINDS WILL VEER S AND  
THEN SSW THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE INCREASING TO 5-7 KTS. SCT CUMULUS  
NEAR 5-6 KFT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...EBW  
LONG TERM...EBW  
AVIATION...EBW  
 
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