409  
FXUS63 KLMK 052317  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
717 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
* CONTINUED HOT AND MOSTLY DRY INTO SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY  
IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.  
 
* HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING IN EARNEST MONDAY THROUGH  
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY SOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE  
DEVELOPED WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND 2500-  
3000 J/KG SBCAPE IN AND AROUND BOWLING GREEN. THE COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS IS GREAT ENOUGH NOW THAT WE WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE  
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE  
GREATEST CHANCE FOR A QUICK SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE WEST OF US 127  
AND SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KY PARKWAY. FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN  
UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL START TO  
GET PINCHED IN BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
AND TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS. AS THE  
SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST, THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN  
THE SAME EVEN AS HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL SLIGHTLY, SO TEMPS WILL BE VERY  
CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE, PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER AT NIGHT AND A DEGREE  
COOLER BY DAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX  
VALUES UP JUST A BIT BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO APPROACH ADVISORY  
LEVELS. THE EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK TOOL SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK OF  
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY FOR HEAT SENSITIVE GROUPS WITHOUT  
ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION.  
 
A SELECT FEW WILL GET AT LEAST TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL POP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST  
CHANCES FOR A POP-UP STORM WILL BE IN SOUTHERN INDIANA, BUT CAN'T  
RULE OUT CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY WEST OF I-65. MOST LOCATIONS  
WILL STILL REMAIN DRY. SHEAR IS TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  
HOWEVER, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL  
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS UPDRAFTS COLLAPSE,  
ALONG WITH BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
TYPICAL MIDSUMMER WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A WEAK  
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO INDIANA, ONLY TO GET HUNG UP AND LINGER NEARBY  
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE BAND OF  
STRONGER WESTERLIES TO SETTLE CLOSER TO US, ALLOWING MULTIPLE  
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THESE DISTURBANCES ALOFT  
INTERACT WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. TOO DIFFICULT TO TIME  
THESE IMPULSES, BUT IN THIS AIR MASS CONVECTION IS A GOOD ENOUGH BET  
THAT WE WILL CARRY HIGH-END SCATTERED POPS, KEYING ON THE AFTERNOONS  
AS THE MOST LIKELY OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS.  
 
GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS, TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY DAY  
AND SOLIDLY ABOVE CLIMO AT NIGHT. WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE IN  
THE FORECAST FOR MULTIPLE DAYS AT A TIME, NONE OF THE DAYS ACTUALLY  
LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT, BUT ANY LOCATION COULD PICK UP A SHOWER OR  
STORM ON ANY DAY. SHEAR IS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY ORGANIZED SVR  
THREAT BUT PULSE STORM HAZARDS ARE IN PLAY, INCLUDING LOCALIZED  
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
DIURNAL CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION AND ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SOUTHWEST  
OF BWG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 06/03Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST BWG  
AND HNB AS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY  
MORNING, WITH RGA LOOKING LESS LIKELY GIVEN DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO  
THE LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT 06/07-12Z TO BE THE MAIN  
WINDOW FOR ANY MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT, WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR  
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF FOG. AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY, VFR  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD, WITH SW WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 6-12 KT SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSRA MAY APPROACH HNB TOWARD THE END OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  
 
 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...CSG  
SHORT TERM...RAS  
LONG TERM...RAS  
AVIATION...CSG  
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