139
FXUS63 KLMK 060525
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
125 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* CONTINUED HOT AND MOSTLY DRY INTO SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY
IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.
* HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING IN EARNEST MONDAY THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 922 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR. WHILE CONVECTION LIKELY HAS OR IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING ELEVATED ABOVE A NOCTURNAL INVERSION, THERE IS STILL SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT THANKS TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE NEAR-SFC
STABLE LAYER. AS A RESULT, THINK THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD CONTINUE FOR INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY WHERE
OUTFLOW/COLD POOLS FROM EXISTING CONVECTION CAN LIFT PARCELS ABOVE
THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR MOST, DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOW-TO-MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON, PATCHY FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP
BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, PLACES WHICH SAW RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WOULD ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG.
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS PROLONGING SHOWER/STORM
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING, AS WELL AS ADDING PATCHY FOG
MENTION SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, WITH MID-70S LIKELY IN THE URBAN HEAT
CENTERS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
UPPER RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL START TO
GET PINCHED IN BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS. AS THE
SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST, THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN
THE SAME EVEN AS HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL SLIGHTLY, SO TEMPS WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE, PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER AT NIGHT AND A DEGREE
COOLER BY DAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP JUST A BIT BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS. THE EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK TOOL SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY FOR HEAT SENSITIVE GROUPS WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION.
A SELECT FEW WILL GET AT LEAST TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL POP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR A POP-UP STORM WILL BE IN SOUTHERN INDIANA, BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY WEST OF I-65. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL STILL REMAIN DRY. SHEAR IS TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
HOWEVER, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS UPDRAFTS COLLAPSE,
ALONG WITH BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
TYPICAL MIDSUMMER WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO INDIANA, ONLY TO GET HUNG UP AND LINGER NEARBY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE BAND OF
STRONGER WESTERLIES TO SETTLE CLOSER TO US, ALLOWING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THESE DISTURBANCES ALOFT
INTERACT WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. TOO DIFFICULT TO TIME
THESE IMPULSES, BUT IN THIS AIR MASS CONVECTION IS A GOOD ENOUGH BET
THAT WE WILL CARRY HIGH-END SCATTERED POPS, KEYING ON THE AFTERNOONS
AS THE MOST LIKELY OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS.
GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS, TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY DAY
AND SOLIDLY ABOVE CLIMO AT NIGHT. WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST FOR MULTIPLE DAYS AT A TIME, NONE OF THE DAYS ACTUALLY
LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT, BUT ANY LOCATION COULD PICK UP A SHOWER OR
STORM ON ANY DAY. SHEAR IS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY ORGANIZED SVR
THREAT BUT PULSE STORM HAZARDS ARE IN PLAY, INCLUDING LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
VERY ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY POSSIBLE NEAR BWG AT THE START OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY. REMNANT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION LINGERS ALONG AND JUST WEST
OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR, BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF
EARLY MORNING FOG STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE AT BWG AND HNB. EXPECT A
HEALTHY AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD ONCE AGAIN TODAY, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE A TSRA MENTION IN THE TAF. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 7-11 KTS FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...EBW
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