577  
FXUS63 KLMK 060722  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
322 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* HOT TODAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100.  
 
* HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING IN EARNEST MONDAY THROUGH  
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERHEAD TODAY. A MID-  
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. A  
SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPPER MI TO KS WILL SINK  
SOUTHEAST FROM LOWER MI TO CENTRAL MO BY 00Z THIS EVENING. A PLUME  
OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN TN AND  
WEST-CENTRAL KY WAS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING.  
THIS MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST  
THROUGH CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN TODAY.  
 
THE MAJORITY OF NEW CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS MO, IL, AND IN TODAY  
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, RICHER LOW-  
LEVEL MOISTURE, STRONG SFC HEATING, AND RELATIVELY WEAKER CAPPING  
WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND  
SOUTHERN IN. VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PULSE SINGLE CELLS,  
AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL FOSTER NEW UPDRAFTS. LIGHTNING, LOCALLY  
GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PULSE  
STORM.  
 
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WILL BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TO A LUCKY FEW.  
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOW 90S AREA-WIDE THIS  
AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SPOTS PUSHING INTO THE MID 90S. SOMEWHAT  
HIGHER HUMIDITY TODAY WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR  
100. HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE A CONCERN FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE  
COOLING/HYDRATION.  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER WELL PAST  
SUNSET IN SOUTHERN IN. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY  
CLEAR OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY  
AS THE SFC COLD FRONT SINKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE  
POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND INCREASED FORCING WILL RESULT IN  
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN TOO  
WEAK FOR ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION. HOWEVER, TORRENTIAL RAINFALL  
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS. THE ADDED MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BEGIN TO  
CONSTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
80S TO LOW 90S.  
 
ON TUESDAY, WE ARE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES, WITH THE NEXT  
WAVE APPROACHING THE MID-MS VALLEY. THE PLUME OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE  
WATER SLIPS SOUTH A BIT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED PM  
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL KY. RAIN CHANCES TAPER TO A SLIGHT CHANCE  
AS YOU MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES OVER  
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN  
PLACE, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. STORM CHANCES WILL  
PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID  
80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
VERY ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY POSSIBLE NEAR BWG AT THE START OF THIS  
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY. REMNANT  
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION LINGERS ALONG AND JUST WEST  
OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR, BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY  
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF  
EARLY MORNING FOG STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE AT BWG AND HNB. EXPECT A  
HEALTHY AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD ONCE AGAIN TODAY, ALONG WITH  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO  
INCLUDE A TSRA MENTION IN THE TAF. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS  
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 7-11 KTS FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...EBW  
LONG TERM...EBW  
AVIATION...EBW  
 
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