567
FXUS63 KLMK 061633
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1233 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT TODAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100.
* HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING IN EARNEST MONDAY THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERHEAD TODAY. A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. A
SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPPER MI TO KS WILL SINK
SOUTHEAST FROM LOWER MI TO CENTRAL MO BY 00Z THIS EVENING. A PLUME
OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN TN AND
WEST-CENTRAL KY WAS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING.
THIS MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN TODAY.
THE MAJORITY OF NEW CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS MO, IL, AND IN TODAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, RICHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE, STRONG SFC HEATING, AND RELATIVELY WEAKER CAPPING
WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND
SOUTHERN IN. VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PULSE SINGLE CELLS,
AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL FOSTER NEW UPDRAFTS. LIGHTNING, LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PULSE
STORM.
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WILL BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TO A LUCKY FEW.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOW 90S AREA-WIDE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SPOTS PUSHING INTO THE MID 90S. SOMEWHAT
HIGHER HUMIDITY TODAY WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
100. HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE A CONCERN FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING/HYDRATION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER WELL PAST
SUNSET IN SOUTHERN IN. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
AS THE SFC COLD FRONT SINKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND INCREASED FORCING WILL RESULT IN
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN TOO
WEAK FOR ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION. HOWEVER, TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE ADDED MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BEGIN TO
CONSTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S.
ON TUESDAY, WE ARE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES, WITH THE NEXT
WAVE APPROACHING THE MID-MS VALLEY. THE PLUME OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER SLIPS SOUTH A BIT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED PM
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL KY. RAIN CHANCES TAPER TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
AS YOU MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. STORM CHANCES WILL
PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
MID-LEVEL CIG FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS SCATTERED OUT, LEAVING
US WITH A SLOWER-DEVELOPING CU FIELD AND WSW WINDS NEAR 10 KT.
EXPECT MAINLY STATUS QUO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, PERHAPS WITH
JUST ENOUGH CU TO GET A CEILING BUT THAT WILL STILL BE VFR IF IT
HAPPENS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION EXCEPT AT
HNB WHERE WE WILL CARRY PROB30.
LIGHT S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL DEBRIS, WHICH COULD GIVE
US ANOTHER MID-LEVEL CIG AT HNB MONDAY MORNING. THICKER CU FIELD
WILL BRING IN A CIG AROUND MID-MORNING, ALBEIT STILL VFR WITH BASES
AROUND 4K FEET.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...RAS
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