567  
FXUS63 KLMK 061633  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
1233 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* HOT TODAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100.  
 
* HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING IN EARNEST MONDAY THROUGH  
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERHEAD TODAY. A MID-  
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. A  
SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPPER MI TO KS WILL SINK  
SOUTHEAST FROM LOWER MI TO CENTRAL MO BY 00Z THIS EVENING. A PLUME  
OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN TN AND  
WEST-CENTRAL KY WAS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING.  
THIS MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST  
THROUGH CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN TODAY.  
 
THE MAJORITY OF NEW CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS MO, IL, AND IN TODAY  
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, RICHER LOW-  
LEVEL MOISTURE, STRONG SFC HEATING, AND RELATIVELY WEAKER CAPPING  
WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND  
SOUTHERN IN. VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PULSE SINGLE CELLS,  
AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL FOSTER NEW UPDRAFTS. LIGHTNING, LOCALLY  
GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PULSE  
STORM.  
 
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WILL BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TO A LUCKY FEW.  
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOW 90S AREA-WIDE THIS  
AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SPOTS PUSHING INTO THE MID 90S. SOMEWHAT  
HIGHER HUMIDITY TODAY WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR  
100. HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE A CONCERN FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE  
COOLING/HYDRATION.  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER WELL PAST  
SUNSET IN SOUTHERN IN. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY  
CLEAR OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY  
AS THE SFC COLD FRONT SINKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE  
POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND INCREASED FORCING WILL RESULT IN  
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN TOO  
WEAK FOR ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION. HOWEVER, TORRENTIAL RAINFALL  
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS. THE ADDED MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BEGIN TO  
CONSTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
80S TO LOW 90S.  
 
ON TUESDAY, WE ARE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES, WITH THE NEXT  
WAVE APPROACHING THE MID-MS VALLEY. THE PLUME OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE  
WATER SLIPS SOUTH A BIT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED PM  
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL KY. RAIN CHANCES TAPER TO A SLIGHT CHANCE  
AS YOU MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES OVER  
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN  
PLACE, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. STORM CHANCES WILL  
PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID  
80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
MID-LEVEL CIG FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS SCATTERED OUT, LEAVING  
US WITH A SLOWER-DEVELOPING CU FIELD AND WSW WINDS NEAR 10 KT.  
EXPECT MAINLY STATUS QUO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, PERHAPS WITH  
JUST ENOUGH CU TO GET A CEILING BUT THAT WILL STILL BE VFR IF IT  
HAPPENS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON  
OR EARLY EVENING, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION EXCEPT AT  
HNB WHERE WE WILL CARRY PROB30.  
 
LIGHT S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL DEBRIS, WHICH COULD GIVE  
US ANOTHER MID-LEVEL CIG AT HNB MONDAY MORNING. THICKER CU FIELD  
WILL BRING IN A CIG AROUND MID-MORNING, ALBEIT STILL VFR WITH BASES  
AROUND 4K FEET.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...EBW  
LONG TERM...EBW  
AVIATION...RAS  
 
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