939  
FXUS63 KLMK 061922  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
322 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
* HOT TODAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100.  
 
* HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING IN EARNEST MONDAY THROUGH  
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
TRANSITION IN PROGRESS TODAY FROM HEAT TO HUMIDITY, WITH ENOUGH  
RIDGING STILL PRESENT ALOFT FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.  
DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, ALLOWING  
THE HEAT INDEX TO APPROACH 100. WE ARE MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THAN  
THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65  
WHERE WE STARTED THE DAY WITH A FAIRLY STOUT MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK.  
STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE WABASH VALLEY IS  
JUST NOW GRAZING DUBOIS COUNTY. IN BETWEEN WE HAVE SEEN WINDS FROM  
CLOSER TO DUE WEST, WITH SOME MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN,  
AND THIS WILL LIMIT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT.  
 
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE IN  
SOUTHERN INDIANA AS THE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST MAKES LIMITED  
HEADWAY INTO OUR AREA. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT  
DCAPE WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORM THAT GETS TALL ENOUGH,  
BUT EXPECT MOST OF THAT WILL BE SUB-SEVERE. BRIEFLY VERY HEAVY  
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH  
IN ANY ONE LOCATION TO CAUSE FLOODING. STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN  
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH  
THE NIGHT IN SOUTHERN INDIANA GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS.  
 
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL SAG JUST FAR ENOUGH  
INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA TO FOCUS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED STORMS  
ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED UNDER WEAK SHEAR, BUT MODERATE TO STRONG  
INSTABILITY AND PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT MORE PULSE STORMS  
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. CLOUDS AND PRECIP  
WILL LIMIT TEMPS BUT WE WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN  
TODAY, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
DOG DAYS OF SUMMER WILL BE IN FULL FORCE MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH WEAK  
UPPER TROFINESS IN BETWEEN THE BERMUDA RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A FOUR  
CORNERS RIDGE TO THE WEST. WESTERLIES REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH MOST  
OF THE TIME TO KEEP THE SHEAR QUITE WEAK.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON, AND WHILE  
COVERAGE AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST, POPS OVER THE  
COURSE OF ANY GIVEN DAY COULD BE AS HIGH AS 60-70%. WITH THE WEAK  
SHEAR IT WILL MOSTLY BE UNORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE STANDARD  
PULSE THREATS OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST  
CHANCE FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED AND INTENSE STORMS WILL BE  
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONG ENOUGH FOR 25-30 KT OF DEEP-  
LAYER SHEAR. THAT IS STILL MOSTLY A PULSE ENVIRONMENT BUT COULD  
SUPPORT SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND A BETTER CHANCE TO BREACH SVR  
WIND THRESHOLDS.  
 
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RUN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL,  
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BE ENOUGH TO  
PUSH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE MID OR UPPER 90S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
MID-LEVEL CIG FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS SCATTERED OUT, LEAVING  
US WITH A SLOWER-DEVELOPING CU FIELD AND WSW WINDS NEAR 10 KT.  
EXPECT MAINLY STATUS QUO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, PERHAPS WITH  
JUST ENOUGH CU TO GET A CEILING BUT THAT WILL STILL BE VFR IF IT  
HAPPENS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON  
OR EARLY EVENING, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION EXCEPT AT  
HNB WHERE WE WILL CARRY PROB30.  
 
LIGHT S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL DEBRIS, WHICH COULD GIVE  
US ANOTHER MID-LEVEL CIG AT HNB MONDAY MORNING. THICKER CU FIELD  
WILL BRING IN A CIG AROUND MID-MORNING, ALBEIT STILL VFR WITH BASES  
AROUND 4K FEET.  
 
 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...RAS  
LONG TERM...RAS  
AVIATION...RAS  
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