254
FXUS63 KLMK 070538
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
138 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT TODAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100.
* HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING IN EARNEST MONDAY THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
TRANSITION IN PROGRESS TODAY FROM HEAT TO HUMIDITY, WITH ENOUGH
RIDGING STILL PRESENT ALOFT FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, ALLOWING
THE HEAT INDEX TO APPROACH 100. WE ARE MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THAN
THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65
WHERE WE STARTED THE DAY WITH A FAIRLY STOUT MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE WABASH VALLEY IS
JUST NOW GRAZING DUBOIS COUNTY. IN BETWEEN WE HAVE SEEN WINDS FROM
CLOSER TO DUE WEST, WITH SOME MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN,
AND THIS WILL LIMIT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE IN
SOUTHERN INDIANA AS THE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST MAKES LIMITED
HEADWAY INTO OUR AREA. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT
DCAPE WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORM THAT GETS TALL ENOUGH,
BUT EXPECT MOST OF THAT WILL BE SUB-SEVERE. BRIEFLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH
IN ANY ONE LOCATION TO CAUSE FLOODING. STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN SOUTHERN INDIANA GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS.
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL SAG JUST FAR ENOUGH
INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA TO FOCUS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED STORMS
ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED UNDER WEAK SHEAR, BUT MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AND PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT MORE PULSE STORMS
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. CLOUDS AND PRECIP
WILL LIMIT TEMPS BUT WE WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
DOG DAYS OF SUMMER WILL BE IN FULL FORCE MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH WEAK
UPPER TROFINESS IN BETWEEN THE BERMUDA RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A FOUR
CORNERS RIDGE TO THE WEST. WESTERLIES REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH MOST
OF THE TIME TO KEEP THE SHEAR QUITE WEAK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON, AND WHILE
COVERAGE AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST, POPS OVER THE
COURSE OF ANY GIVEN DAY COULD BE AS HIGH AS 60-70%. WITH THE WEAK
SHEAR IT WILL MOSTLY BE UNORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE STANDARD
PULSE THREATS OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST
CHANCE FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED AND INTENSE STORMS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONG ENOUGH FOR 25-30 KT OF DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR. THAT IS STILL MOSTLY A PULSE ENVIRONMENT BUT COULD
SUPPORT SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND A BETTER CHANCE TO BREACH SVR
WIND THRESHOLDS.
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RUN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL,
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PUSH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE MID OR UPPER 90S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
STILL HAVE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHRA APPROACHING I-65 EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS AT A TAF SITE IS LOW.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LIGHT WINDS. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH 10-15 KTS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION, REACHING SOUTHERN IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 15-16Z,
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 17-00Z. THE MAIN CONCERNS WOULD
BE TYPICAL TSRA HAZARDS: BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, QUICK VSBY DROP TO
MVFR OR LOWER, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...EBW
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