849  
FXUS63 KLMK 071454  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
1054 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND  
BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
* WARM AND HUMID ALL WEEK, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
EXPECTED EACH DAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1054 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
KY, BUT A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IS NOTED OVER IN AND WESTERN KY WHERE  
A "COLD" FRONT IS LOCATED. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-80S  
ALREADY, AND WITH MUGGY DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LOWER  
70S. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECT DIURNAL  
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PWATS IN PLACE, HEAVY RAIN AND WET  
MICROBURSTS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD FOR TODAY. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A  
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS, THOUGH OUR CONFIDENCE IN ANY  
STORMS PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS REMAINS LOW. OUR ENVIRONMENT WILL  
FEATURE HIGH CAPE, BUT LOW SHEAR AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS. OVERALL,  
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE, WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TRIMMING TO  
POPS AT THIS HOUR BASED ON GOES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO, WITH A  
TRAILING COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MI, CENTRAL IL,  
AND WEST INTO KS. A POOL OF PW NEAR 2 INCHES IS NOTED ALONG THE  
BOUNDARY THROUGH NORTHWEST OH, IN, IL, AND MO. LIGHT SW LOW-LEVEL  
FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE  
HUMIDITY HAS RETURNED, WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS  
THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
TODAY, THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SINK INTO  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/IN. THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL SPILL INTO SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY, AS WELL AS WEAK  
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY, WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO STRONG  
DESTABILIZATION OF THE HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG  
UPDRAFTS, THOUGH WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION. PULSE STORM  
HAZARDS WILL BE IN PLAY, INCLUDING BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS,  
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING.  
 
IN GENERAL, HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES  
LOWER ACROSS THE BOARD. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON STORMS AND CLOUD COVER  
INTRODUCE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.  
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. SHOWERS AND  
STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET, WITH ISOLATED  
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE  
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH  
FRIDAY, DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WITH  
NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGES, A VERY WARM, HUMID AIRMASS WILL  
REMAIN IN PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EACH  
DAY, WITH ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN A WEAKLY FORCED, UNSTABLE  
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK SHEAR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE  
TO 25 KTS OR SO ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE  
REGION, WHICH COULD SUPPORT LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. HOWEVER,  
FOR THE MOST PART, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND  
UNORGANIZED. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS,  
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LIGHTNING.  
 
THIS WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
CONUS. WE SHOULD SEE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, A  
STRONGER CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DRAGS A COLD FRONT TOWARD  
THE REGION, KEEPING RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.  
 
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL RUN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS  
IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER  
60S TO LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY  
CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY. HOWEVER, LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL  
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION  
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SCATTERED PM SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED IN A  
MOIST, UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY. ANY HEAVIER  
OR STORM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. DUE TO SPOTTY  
NATURE OF CONVECTION TODAY, DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE PROB30 MENTION  
DURING THE MOST FAVORABLE HOURS.  
 
WINDS WILL WEAKEN QUITE A BIT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY  
STALLS NEAR SOUTHERN IN. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS  
SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY EARLY TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...CJP  
SHORT TERM...EBW  
LONG TERM...EBW  
AVIATION...EBW  
 
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