662  
FXUS63 KLMK 071918  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
318 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND  
BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
* WARM AND HUMID ALL WEEK, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
EXPECTED EACH DAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS  
AFTERNOON WITHIN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. SFC HEATING HAS  
RESULTED IN TEMPS HITTING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S, COMBINED WITH  
MUGGY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS HAS LED TO A  
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND  
IN, WITH DEEP MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT THAT IS FEEDING INTO THE  
CONVECTION. PWATS RANGE FROM 1.7 TO 2 INCHES OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE  
HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOCUSED OVER WESTERN KY. SPC EXPANDED THE MARGINAL  
RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY DUE TO A SHARP GRADIENT OF DCAPE  
VALUE OVER THE I-65 CORRIDOR, AND 1000+ DCAPE VALUES TO THE EAST.  
WHILE MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN MESSY AND UNORGANIZED, A FEW STRONGER  
CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY AS THEY  
WORK INTO THAT DCAPE GRADIENT OR EASTWARD. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE  
CONTENT, EVERY STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF TORRENTIAL  
DOWNPOURS, IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING.  
 
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BY THIS  
EVENING, LEADING TO A DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT FOR MOST, WITH ONLY AN  
ISOLATED CHANCE IN THE BLUEGRASS LATER INTO THE NIGHT. MOST OF THE  
AREA SHOULD HAVE SOME CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS, THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL  
CIRRUS MAY STILL QUIETLY STREAM OVERHEAD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
LIGHT, AND WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  
 
FOR TOMORROW, ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY IS IN STORE, WITH THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE HANGING OUT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO POP UP AGAIN BY  
THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED  
IN OUR WEST, AND MORE ISOLATED TO THE EAST. SIMILAR TO TODAY, STORMS  
FOR TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND  
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL US, ALONG WITH A MEANDERING  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE DAYS  
OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. WITH THE FRONT HUNG UP ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, WE'LL BE STUCK WITH A  
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND  
LOWER 90S, AND DAILY AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WITH  
DIURNAL HEATING, EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO BLOSSOM EACH AFTERNOON  
WHEN OUR INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES. GENERALLY, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE  
WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOSTLY UNORGANIZED AND LIMIT CONCERNS FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER. PWATS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO PRODUCE HEAVY  
RAINFALL. WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS, LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS  
COULD BE POSSIBLE.  
 
BY THE WEEKEND, WE'LL BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES,  
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US, AND A STRONG UPPER LOW  
OVER THE DAKOTAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES ARE EXPECTED  
AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL  
PEAK EACH AFTERNOON, AND DIMINISH FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS EACH DAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD  
OVER MOST TERMINALS. AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA IS  
POSSIBLE, SO HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL  
IMPACTS. BY THIS EVENING, PRECIP SHOULD BE DIMINISHING, LEAVING VFR  
CIGS IN PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY BR WILL BE POSSIBLE  
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR VIS IMPACTS AT HNB AS  
OF NOW. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW, WITH ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON  
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...CJP  
LONG TERM...CJP  
AVIATION...CJP  
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