185  
FXUS63 KLMK 090555  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
155 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY  
WINDS AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE  
WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.  
 
* WARM AND HUMID ALL WEEK, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
EXPECTED EACH DAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 943 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
AREA RADARS ARE QUIET AT THIS HOUR AS THE NEAREST CONVECTION RESIDES  
ACROSS SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHERN AL. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE  
MID-MISS. VALLEY HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, IN LINE WITH  
THIS AFTERNOON'S HRRR GUIDANCE. WOULD EXPECT THE REST OF THIS AREA  
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FALL APART WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING OVER  
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
 
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MOSTLY DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BAGGY MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS IN PLACE JUST  
NW OF THE AREA, AND 10-15 KT LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS  
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SET OFF  
A FEW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, THESE SHOULD BE  
FAIRLY ISOLATED. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD FROM  
THE SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT. WHILE THIS MAY LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG  
DEVELOPMENT, PATCHY FOG IS STILL LIKELY NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND IN  
AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER SEASONABLY MILD  
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER  
70S.  
 
FOR THIS UPDATE, JUST FRESHENED OVERNIGHT POPS AND TEMPERATURES TO  
MATCH LATEST HI-RES TRENDS. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TODAY, WITH SFC TEMPS IN  
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND DEWPOINTS IN  
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED  
ACROSS WESTERN KY, BEING DRIVEN BY A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE  
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DESPITE MARGINAL  
INSTABILITY, LITTLE TO NO WIND SHEAR IS KEEPING ANY CONVECTION  
UNORGANIZED. PWATS ABOVE 1.5" WILL SUPPORT SOME HEAVY RAIN RATES  
NEAR THE BWG AREA. OVERALL, THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. CAMS HAVE  
PERFORMED POORLY TODAY, SO CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP OUTSIDE  
OF THIS CLUSTER REMAINS LOW.  
 
BY THIS EVENING, THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE A DECEASE  
IN PRECIP ACTIVITY. OVERNIGHT, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERHEAD  
AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENERAL TROUGHINESS AND THE WEAK  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEFORE SUNRISE, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP,  
ESPECIALLY IN OUR VALLEYS AND ANY AREAS THAT DO PICK UP SOME RAIN  
THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
FOR TOMORROW, THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE, THOUGH WE  
WILL REMAIN IN A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS. STACKED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS  
SUPPORTING A SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A TRAILING COLD  
FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD BY  
TOMORROW, AND WILL BE CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL IN AND IL BY THE END OF  
THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM DAYTIME HEATING AND MUGGY AIRMASS,  
ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WILL SUPPORT  
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS  
THE REGION TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS  
SUGGEST PWATS TO BE ABOVE 1.7", SUGGESTING HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. WIND  
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF MESSY GARDEN VARIETY  
STORMS, WITH SLOWER STORM MOTIONS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, WITH UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE  
SOUTHWESTERN US. A SECOND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD  
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY, DRIVEN BY A SFC LOW  
PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN IN A WARM AND  
HUMID AIRMASS. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE  
FORECAST AREA, LIKELY GETTING STALLED OUT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM  
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH MUGGY DEWPOINTS AND ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS  
AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AS WE WARM INTO THE UPPER  
80S AND LOWER 90S. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS WILL FIRE OFF IN A  
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, BUT WEAK FLOW IN THE COLUMN WILL  
KEEP WIND SHEAR WEAK. THIS WILL PROMOTE STORMS TO BE UNORGANIZED,  
THOUGH SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY  
WINDS.  
 
AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH OF  
THE REGION, THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER  
SFC LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND TRAIL AN ASSOCIATED  
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST. WE WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY, WITH  
HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S, AND  
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S DURING PEAK HEATING. SHOWER AND STORM  
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO THE  
NIGHTTIME HOURS AS WE LOSE HEATING EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS QUIET AND MAINLY VFR FLIGHT  
CATEGORIES. AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, BRIEF MVFR  
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT AROUND THE START OF THE DAY DEPENDING ON HOW  
MUCH MIXING OCCURS BEFORE THE CU FIELD DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN  
THING TO LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS AS HAS BEEN THE MAIN ISSUE THE LAST FEW DAYS. WENT  
AHEAD AND ADDED A PROB30 TO SDF THINKING THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER  
CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR A SHOWER OR STORM THEN THE ACTIVITY  
DIMINISHES WITH THE SETTING SUN.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...CSG  
SHORT TERM...CJP  
LONG TERM...CJP  
AVIATION...BTN  
 
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