912  
FXUS63 KLMK 091447  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
1047 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY  
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TODAY, MAINLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
* WARM AND HUMID ALL WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE  
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING AS WE  
REMAIN UNDERNEATH A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE.  
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED SLOW DOWN THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE, WITH MOST  
STATIONS REPORTING IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AT THIS HOUR. AS A  
RESULT, EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE MID-80S FOR MOST. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MARGINAL  
CAPE BUT WEAK SHEAR AVAILABLE. HIGHER PWATS ARE ALSO EXPECTED,  
POTENTIALLY NEAR 2 INCHES FOR SOME, SO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE  
POSSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO HOLD FOR THE  
DAY, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP OUR TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY, AND  
POSSIBLY RESULT IN WEAKER DESTABILIZATION. OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS  
IN GOOD SHAPE, WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKING TO POPS GIVEN THE  
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH  
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX CROSSING IN AND CENTRAL KY LATER THIS MORNING  
AND AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST  
ACROSS IL/IN DURING THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. GOOD MOISTURE  
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW PWAT VALUES TO RISE TO  
AROUND 2.00" WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND 2000 J/KG IN  
THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE MUGGY  
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE IS DURING THE AFTERNOON,  
WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX START TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL  
REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS NEAR 70.  
ONCE AGAIN THE LACK OF SHEAR WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY SUB SEVERE WITH  
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, LIGHTING AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN  
THREAT.  
 
AS THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE THE  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WE COULD SEE A FEW  
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY  
ON THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT WILL BE  
WORKING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING  
THE DAY THURSDAY. FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA BUT  
WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTER BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS  
AS PWAT VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1.50". WHILE WE REMAIN IN THE WARM AND  
MUGGY AIRMASS, WITH CONTINUED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS  
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, ANY  
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN UNORGANIZED AND SUBSEVERE PRODUCING HEAVY  
RAINFALL, LIGHTING AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL ALSO REMAIN  
WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.  
 
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TROUGHS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. WE WILL  
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW  
90S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.  
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK OF  
DAYTIME HEATING.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS WORKING ACROSS THE OHIO  
VALLEY. MOST OF THE STRATUS IS BETWEEN 5-10K FEET WITH SCATTERED  
CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE WE GET  
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR BEFORE WE SEE THE LOWER LAYER SCATTER OUT  
MORE FOR MORE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. AS THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE  
APPROACHES, WE DO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH OUT THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND WENT WITH PROB30 FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS  
AFTERNOON. FOR SDF/HNB A SHOWER OR STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS  
MORNING BUT THE PROBABILITY IS HIGHER LATER TODAY. ACTIVITY IS  
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT A FEW  
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CIG AND VIS  
TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING FOR A FEW LOCATIONS.  
 
 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...CJP  
SHORT TERM...BTN  
LONG TERM...BTN  
AVIATION...BTN  
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