003  
FXUS63 KLMK 100538  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
138 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN  
COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY  
THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
* WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH  
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY  
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DRIFTED ACROSS THE KY BLUEGRASS  
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, PRODUCING ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2"  
THANKS TO TRAINING STORM MOTIONS. THESE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED A  
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO, AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT  
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BETWEEN NOW AND  
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY, A ROGUE  
SHOWER OR STORM COULD STILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT  
HOURS; HOWEVER, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED.  
 
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD  
BE FIGURING OUT HOW PREVALENT FOG WILL BE. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 AS  
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE EAST. GIVEN THIS CLEARING AND  
RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC (DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY  
SMALL IN MANY RURAL AREAS AS OF 01Z), FOG SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD  
THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON  
WOULD HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SEEING FOG TOMORROW MORNING. FOR  
NOW, WILL KEEP WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST'S THINKING OF PATCHY FOG  
ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT AS  
PREFERRED FOG DEVELOPMENT AREAS BECOME EVIDENT.  
 
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL  
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW-TO-MID 70S THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT  
AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.  
 
ISSUED AT 536 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
MUCH OF THE LMK FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED DRY THIS AFTERNOON,  
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY BEING CONFINED TO A NARROW CORRIDOR  
ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH CENTRAL KY, WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY  
ELSEWHERE. PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BE LIMITING  
DESTABILIZATION ENOUGH TO KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED, SO HAVE NUDGED  
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE  
ONGOING. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT THE BAND OF CELLS DOES HAVE A BIT OF AN  
OUTFLOW KICK TO IT, AND ADDITIONAL CELLS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AS THIS  
OUTFLOW PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN SOME  
TRAINING OF CELLS AND ELEVATED PWATS, WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT  
ON LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CONVECTIVE  
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
 
 
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,  
WHICH IS DRIVEN BY A SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD AND AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX.  
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS INDIANA, AND IS EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 80S FOR  
MOST (OUTSIDE OF SDF), THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER OUR  
AREA. WITH A LACK OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VIRTUALLY NO SHEAR,  
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIP TO DIMINISH BY  
THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING.  
 
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY MID-LEVEL AND  
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
LINGERING, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS.  
 
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW, ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF EVENTUALLY, LEADING TO  
ANOTHER SEASONABLE DAY WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S, AND  
PERHAPS LOWER 90S FOR THE HEAT ISLANDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW, WITH LESS MID-  
LEVEL FORCING EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRIER DAY, ESPECIALLY  
TO THE WEST OF I-65. SOME ISOLATED POP-UPS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR  
EAST, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND  
WEAK SHEAR. GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN,  
THANKS TO PEAK HEATING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY  
NIGHT, WITH DEEPER MOISTURE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. WITH  
THIS PATTERN IN PLACE, AND A LACK OF STRONG FORCING, WE'LL HAVE A  
DRY PERIOD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE A WARM SW FLOW  
INTO THE REGION, WHICH WILL SUPPORT OUR SFC TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE  
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND  
LOWER 70S. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EAST OF I-65. MODEL SOUNDINGS  
SHOW TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, WITH VERY WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT  
THE ENTIRE COLUMN. WHILE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY  
DRY, SOME CELLS MAY POP-UP IN AN AGITATED CU FIELD. STORM MOTIONS  
WILL BE QUITE SLOW, THOUGH OUR SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL BE VERY WEAK,  
LEADING TO ANY STORMS TO BE UNORGANIZED. ANY ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL  
DIMINISH BY FRIDAY EVENING AS BRIEF UPPER RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD.  
 
AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PASSING  
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS  
THE HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE  
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES OF THE LONG TERM  
WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE LOW WITH FROPA, GIVEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL  
WIND PROFILES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL  
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HITTING THE 90S, WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE WARM  
WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO HIT THE MID 70S.  
 
ADDITIONAL LOW-END RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS  
WEAK IMPULSES PASS OVERHEAD, BUT CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINS  
LOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
THINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT  
SHOULD LARGELY BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, HOWEVER  
DO HAVE SOME FOG CONCERNS TO GET THROUGH. BWG/HNB REMAIN THE BEST  
CANDIDATES TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF  
IFR VIS IN THE PRE-DAWN THROUGH SUNRISE TIME PERIOD. ELSEWHERE,  
LEX/RGA MAY ALSO SEE SOME MINOR VIS RESTRICTIONS, ALTHOUGH NOT AS  
CONFIDENT FARTHER EAST.  
 
OUTSIDE OF THAT, LOOK FOR A STEADY SW TO W WIND TODAY, WITH PERHAPS  
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SCT-  
BKN CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THAT MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT  
TIMES. BY MIDDAY, EXPECT ANY CEILINGS TO BE VFR.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...CSG  
SHORT TERM...CJP  
LONG TERM...CJP  
AVIATION...BJS  
 
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