003
FXUS63 KLMK 100538
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
138 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
* WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DRIFTED ACROSS THE KY BLUEGRASS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, PRODUCING ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2"
THANKS TO TRAINING STORM MOTIONS. THESE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO, AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY, A ROGUE
SHOWER OR STORM COULD STILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS; HOWEVER, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
BE FIGURING OUT HOW PREVALENT FOG WILL BE. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 AS
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE EAST. GIVEN THIS CLEARING AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC (DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY
SMALL IN MANY RURAL AREAS AS OF 01Z), FOG SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WOULD HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SEEING FOG TOMORROW MORNING. FOR
NOW, WILL KEEP WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST'S THINKING OF PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT AS
PREFERRED FOG DEVELOPMENT AREAS BECOME EVIDENT.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW-TO-MID 70S THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.
ISSUED AT 536 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
MUCH OF THE LMK FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED DRY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY BEING CONFINED TO A NARROW CORRIDOR
ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH CENTRAL KY, WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BE LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION ENOUGH TO KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED, SO HAVE NUDGED
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ONGOING. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT THE BAND OF CELLS DOES HAVE A BIT OF AN
OUTFLOW KICK TO IT, AND ADDITIONAL CELLS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AS THIS
OUTFLOW PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS AND ELEVATED PWATS, WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT
ON LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH IS DRIVEN BY A SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD AND AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS INDIANA, AND IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 80S FOR
MOST (OUTSIDE OF SDF), THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A LACK OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VIRTUALLY NO SHEAR,
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIP TO DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS.
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW, ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF EVENTUALLY, LEADING TO
ANOTHER SEASONABLE DAY WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S, AND
PERHAPS LOWER 90S FOR THE HEAT ISLANDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW, WITH LESS MID-
LEVEL FORCING EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRIER DAY, ESPECIALLY
TO THE WEST OF I-65. SOME ISOLATED POP-UPS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR
EAST, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND
WEAK SHEAR. GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN,
THANKS TO PEAK HEATING.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH DEEPER MOISTURE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. WITH
THIS PATTERN IN PLACE, AND A LACK OF STRONG FORCING, WE'LL HAVE A
DRY PERIOD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE A WARM SW FLOW
INTO THE REGION, WHICH WILL SUPPORT OUR SFC TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EAST OF I-65. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, WITH VERY WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE COLUMN. WHILE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY, SOME CELLS MAY POP-UP IN AN AGITATED CU FIELD. STORM MOTIONS
WILL BE QUITE SLOW, THOUGH OUR SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL BE VERY WEAK,
LEADING TO ANY STORMS TO BE UNORGANIZED. ANY ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH BY FRIDAY EVENING AS BRIEF UPPER RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD.
AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES OF THE LONG TERM
WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE LOW WITH FROPA, GIVEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HITTING THE 90S, WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE WARM
WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO HIT THE MID 70S.
ADDITIONAL LOW-END RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK IMPULSES PASS OVERHEAD, BUT CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINS
LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
THINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT
SHOULD LARGELY BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, HOWEVER
DO HAVE SOME FOG CONCERNS TO GET THROUGH. BWG/HNB REMAIN THE BEST
CANDIDATES TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR VIS IN THE PRE-DAWN THROUGH SUNRISE TIME PERIOD. ELSEWHERE,
LEX/RGA MAY ALSO SEE SOME MINOR VIS RESTRICTIONS, ALTHOUGH NOT AS
CONFIDENT FARTHER EAST.
OUTSIDE OF THAT, LOOK FOR A STEADY SW TO W WIND TODAY, WITH PERHAPS
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SCT-
BKN CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THAT MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT
TIMES. BY MIDDAY, EXPECT ANY CEILINGS TO BE VFR.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...BJS
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