710  
FXUS63 KLMK 101709  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
109 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
* PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW STRAY  
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF I-65.  
 
* WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH  
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY  
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS  
NOT EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
THINGS ARE MOSTLY QUIET THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF ISSUES TO  
DISCUSS. FIRST OFF, STILL HANGING ONTO A FEW SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF  
THUNDER EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE CLUSTER IS DOWN TOWARD THE LAKE  
CUMBERLAND REGION, AND THE OTHER IS OVER SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN  
KY. BOTH ARE SLOWLY MOVING ESE, AND WILL HANDLE WITH SOME ISO  
MENTION IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE OTHER ISSUE IS PATCHY FOG  
DEVELOPMENT. SO FAR, OBS AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY ARE  
SHOWING TRANSIENT AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR OBS THIS MORNING, BUT PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE  
GRIDS/FORECAST SHOULD COVER IT.  
 
BAGGY TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA TODAY, ALTHOUGH MOST  
OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ONLY  
EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY, AND THIS WILL  
MAINLY BE EAST OF I-65. HAVE SOME ISOLATED CHANCES UP TO ALONG THE  
OHIO RIVER, BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 20%. AS FAR AS  
STORM MODE GOES, SHOULD BE THE SAME STORY, DIFFERENT DAY. ANY STORM  
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER  
SHEAR, AND RELATIVELY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT, ONLY  
PULSE MODES WILL BE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A GUSTY  
OF WIND WITH ANY COLLAPSING UPDRAFTS. OUTSIDE OF THE MEAGER PRECIP  
CHANCES, SHOULD SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH A STEADY  
SW WIND. THE END RESULT WILL BE WARMER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND  
LOW 90S.  
 
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF  
HEATING. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOW MOSTLY IN THE 70  
TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. ANOTHER DECENT FOG SIGNAL IS POSSIBLE LATER  
TONIGHT UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, AND MOIST LOW  
LEVELS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...  
 
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL THERE  
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A TRIGGERING MECHANISM IN PLACE TO  
FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION, SOME FORECAST SOUNDING DATA  
SHOWS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND H7. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS DAY, AND WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME  
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED, BUT OVERALL  
LOOKING FOR PRETTY MINIMAL COVERAGE OF SLOW MOVING PULSE STORM  
MODES. LOOK FOR TEMPS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH  
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A STEADY SW WIND.  
 
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY SHOULD SEE A TREND TOWARD BETTER  
STORM COVERAGE PEAKING EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL  
OCCUR AS CENTRAL CONUS TROUGHING BEGINS TO SAG INTO OUR AREA,  
BRINGING A BIT MORE OF A FOCUS FOR STORM TRIGGERING. SUNDAY WILL  
ALSO FEATURE A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO OUR AREA, SO THIS IS  
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DAY FOR STORM COVERAGE, AND WILL CONTINUE  
MENTION OF 60-70% CHANCES THIS DAY. THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND  
SHOULD BE SATURDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. BY SUNDAY,  
EXPECT A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER GIVEN INCREASED STORM COVERAGE AND SKY  
COVER.  
 
MONDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE, BUT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO LEAVE SHOWER  
AND STORM CHANCES IN AS SOME DATA SUGGESTS THE FRONT AND BAGGY UPPER  
TROUGH WILL LINGER FOR ONE MORE DAY. IF THIS DOES PLAY OUT, COVERAGE  
WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF  
THE CWA. HIGHS ARE BACK IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 BY THIS TIME AS  
THE FRONT HAS SOME MINIMAL INFLUENCE ON THE AREA.  
 
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...  
 
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MID WEEK PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS  
TRY TO BUILD A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS. THE PROBLEM IS  
THAT OUR REGION APPEARS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS  
FEATURE, AND COULD SUBJECT US TO CONTINUED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER  
AND STORM CHANCES. THE STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED JUST A  
BIT TO OUR NW, BUT CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THEY COULD PROVIDE SOME  
TRIGGERING INFLUENCE INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW, WILL JUST FORECAST WARM  
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH SOME ISOLATED TO  
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
SCATTERED CU FIELD IS OVER THE REGION TODAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS  
EXPECT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS  
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY  
FOG DEVELOPMENT. NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN VIS IMPACTS TOMORROW MORNING,  
SO DID NOT INCLUDE BR MENTION IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW TOO.  
 
 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...BJS  
LONG TERM...BJS  
AVIATION...CJP  
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