447  
FXUS63 KLMK 102332  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
732 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF I-65 FOR THE REST  
OF THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY  
MORNING.  
 
* WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH  
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY  
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS  
NOT EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS BLOSSOMED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,  
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST, AND LOW 90S FOR SDF. A FEW  
ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED BY RADAR, THOUGH THE LACK OF  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES HAVE KEPT CONVECTION FROM  
GROWING. A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,  
BUT WITH NO REAL TRIGGER IN PLACE, AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHIFTING  
TO OUR EAST, COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED, AND MOST OF THE REGION  
WILL REMAIN DRY.  
 
FOR TONIGHT, LESS CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH LIGHTER  
WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP  
BEFORE SUNRISE DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  
 
FOR TOMORROW, ZONAL FLOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY,  
RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY WITH NO STRONG TRIGGER TO FIRE OFF  
CONVECTION. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CHANCE IN THE  
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR KY, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL, AND JUST  
ABOUT ALL OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPS PEAK IN THE  
LOWER 90S TOMORROW, WITH HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE  
UPPER 90S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
===== SATURDAY - MONDAY =====  
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL SUPPORT A SFC LOW TO  
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED COLD  
FRONT WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE MIDWEST, PROVIDING A BETTER FORCING  
MECHANISM FOR INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES EXIST FOR SATURDAY, THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES  
WILL COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE  
REGION. SBCAPE EXCEEDING 200 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SFC  
HEATING TEMPS UP TO THE LOW 90S, WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE MID 70S  
POSSIBLE. PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING TO HEAVY  
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SHEAR PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO APPEAR  
WEAK AND UNIDIRECTIONAL IN MODEL SOUNDINGS, SO SEVERE WEATHER  
CHANCES APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER  
STORMS, CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING, BUT TORRENTIAL  
DOWNPOURS WILL BE MAIN HAZARD.  
 
THE FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL MONDAY,  
AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY BE TAKING ITS TIME TO SHIFT EAST OF THE  
AREA. THIS WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL POPS FOR MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT  
POSSIBLY BISECTING THE CWA, HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED  
SOUTH OF THE KY PARKWAYS.  
 
THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, WITH  
HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING THE MID 90S. WITH MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW  
TO MID 70S, THAT SHOULD YIELD HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F DURING SAT  
AFTERNOON.  
 
===== TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY =====  
 
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH MAY EXTEND OVER THE LOWER OHIO  
VALLEY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PRIOR  
DISCUSSION, BEING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COULD  
SUBJECT US TO CONTINUED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.  
WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE  
PERIOD REGARDING POPS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RIDGING PATTERN, WE MAY  
END UP HAVING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY, WITH  
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING THE MID 90S. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN  
EYE ON, AS THAT COULD YIELD SOME HEAT INDICES OVER 100F.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL HELP WINDS EASE TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT  
FOG IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY AVIATION IMPACTS. TOMORROW,  
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS  
SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPS.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CJP  
LONG TERM...CJP  
AVIATION...KDW  
 
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