324
FXUS63 KLMK 140648
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
248 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* REMAINING VERY WARM AND HUMID FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
SCATTERED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES EACH DAY. HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS, AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
WE'RE IN A RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVENING
CONVECTION HAS MOVED ON, AND WE AWAIT THE NEXT SUBTLE MCV COMING
FROM UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
OR A STRAY T-STORM THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED BY WHAT IS
COMING OUT OF THE MO BOOTHEEL AT THE MOMENT. LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
WE DO EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ON THE ORDER OF 1500-
2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SW CWA WHICH WILL HAVE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TD'S, AND MAY SEE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE. THIS IS THE
MAIN DRIVER FOR THE SPC MARGINAL RISK (WIND) DOWN THERE. NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE CHANCES, BUT CAN'T RULE IT OUT EITHER. WE'LL
BE SITUATED BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE, AND THAT COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE PM HOURS.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE, DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK AROUND 15
KNOTS, HOWEVER THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A FEW BRIEFLY STRONGER UPDRAFTS BEFORE THEY COLLAPSE.
OVERALL, LOOK FOR PULSE/GARDEN VARIETY STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND GUSTY WINDS. THE BIGGER FOCUS WILL BE THE CONTINUED
HIGH PWAT AIRMASS (~2" THROUGH THE COLUMN), WHICH COMBINED WITH SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT CAN CREATE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
OVERALL, SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOVEMENT AND SCATTERED COVERAGE TO
MITIGATE LARGER CONCERNS.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN MORE
CLOUD COVER, AND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPINGING ON THE AREA.
LOOKING FOR MOSTLY UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS, WITH MILD LOWS TONIGHT ONCE
AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING PAST SUNSET AS WE LOSE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE A "RINSE AND REPEAT"
TYPE OF PATTERN THAT WILL PROMOTE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES EACH DAY. EVEN TEMPERATURES WILL BEHAVE FAIRLY STEADY
STATE AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S EACH
DAY, WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 70S. THESE
TYPES OF PATTERNS ARE ALSO PATCHY FOG MORNINGS, ESPECIALLY NEAR
WATER BODIES AND ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVED PREVIOUS HEAVIER RAINFALL.
WE START TUESDAY ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF A SE CONUS UPPER RIDGE.
ALONG THIS PERIPHERY, WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW MOVING TRAIN OF
WEAK MCV'S STRETCHING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION UP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN TRIGGER
FOR TUESDAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF PM
STORMS TO OUR WESTERN CWA.
AS WE GET INTO MID WEEK, AND THEN EXPANDING INTO LATE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS JUST A BIT, AND A BELT OF
ZONAL WESTERLIES WILL SINK INTO OUR REGION. THE END RESULT WILL BE A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING AN EASTERN CANADA SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL SINK DOWN NEAR OR INTO OUR AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. AT
THE VERY LEAST, THIS WILL ACT AS A WEAK TRIGGERING MECHANISM, AND
MAY HELP TO KEEP TEMPS SUPPRESSED JUST A BIT (STILL ABOVE NORMAL).
OVERALL, DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY WEAK, SO STILL
EXPECTING MOSTLY PULSE/GARDEN VARIETY STORM MODES. IT IS POSSIBLE TO
GET SOME BRIEFLY ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WITH ANY WEAK WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT, HOWEVER TIMING OR HAVING
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE TIME PERIOD IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME
SERIES. BOTTOM LINE IS TO EXPECT A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
FORECAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON
AMONG TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING THIS STRETCH, ESPECIALLY EACH
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING, HOWEVER
STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND, AND A BIT OF POTENTIAL FOR MORE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY BACK NORTH AND
SHOULD RESIDE IN THE GENERAL AREA OF THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
(KHNB/KSDF/KLEX). HERE, WE DO EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE MVFR, OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS). COULD SEE SOME
MINOR VIS REDUCTIONS NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE NOW
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS,
WE'LL THEN SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL KEEP PROB30 MENTION FOR
THAT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS
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