335
FXUS63 KLMK 180514
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
114 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-CENTRAL KY. STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, IN
ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
* TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
* OUTSIDE OF STORMS, VERY HOT AND HUMID ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KY WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 100-105 THIS AFTERNOON.
* A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA HAS DIMINISHED OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS NOW CENTERED
OVER OUR FAR SE (LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION) AND WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. LOOKING UPSTREAM, WE HAVE A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
CONVECTION THAT WE'RE WATCHING. FIRST AREA IS OVER WEST-CENTRAL KY
WHERE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
IL. SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ON OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CHANCES.
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY DRIER OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER, THE NAM3K SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER WESTERN KY LATER TONIGHT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION.
OVERALL, THE NAM3K HAS DONE PRETTY WELL IN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
CONVECTION WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/PLACEMENT. GIVEN THE ONGOING
UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION,
WE'RE GOING TO EXTEND THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN
SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY. THIS DEVELOPMENT
HAS OCCURRED WITH STRONG HEATING OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN IL/IN. MLCAPE
IS AROUND 3000 J/KG AS NOTED IN RECENT SPC RAP MESOANALYSIS DATA.
WEAK MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE PRODUCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 15-20 KTS. STORM MODE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE ONLY LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AS COLD POOLS INTERACT. LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS
REMAIN A POSSIBLE HAZARD THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE STRONG
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE AND WEAK SHEAR.
PW OF 2+ INCHES NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. STORM MOTION IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
TO AVOID WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES, BUT SOME WEST TO EAST TRAINING
IS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP-LAYER MEAN WIND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THIS
MORNING, AND CONSIDERED EXPANDING FURTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH CENTRAL KY. HOWEVER, NOT QUITE CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO EXPAND FURTHER WEST AT THIS TIME DUE TO HIGHER FFG IN MOST
OF THOSE AREAS AND LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT TRAINING
OCCURRING. BUT, EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED/EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS MORE ISOLATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS EVENING, SCATTERED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
WANE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER 02Z. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE, AND WITH SUCH RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE, WE
ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE A COMPLETELY CLEAR RADAR OVERNIGHT. REDUCED
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL LOWER THE OVERALL FLOODING
THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HOWEVER. SO WILL LEAVE THE
EXPIRATION TIME ON THE FLOOD WATCH AT 04Z, BUT AS THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION MENTIONED, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NEEDING TO EXTEND
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE WATCH INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID. SFC WARMING MAY BE HELD BACK
A BIT BY CLOUD COVER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A VERY MOIST, WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE CENTER RETROGRADING
WESTWARD JUST A BIT. AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL
GRADUALLY YIELD MORE OF A NW FLOW PATTERN WITH TIME. SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING EPISODIC
BOUTS OF CONVECTION. THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN COULD RESULT IN
MULTIPLE MCSS THAT DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT NORTHERN IL, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IN AND INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN KY
COULD SEE THE MOST CONVECTIVE ACTION ALONG WITH A THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HOT AND HUMID THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD, THE HEAT WILL BUILD WITH TIME AS THE RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. EXCESSIVE HEAT BECOMES A
GREATER CONCERN THROUGH THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES WELL OVER 100. WE SHOULD
ALSO GRADUALLY SEE A TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS OVERALL LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN KY
WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AFFECTING
KSDF AND KLEX, PROBABLY BETWEEN 18/08-13Z. KBWG LOOKS TO REMAIN
MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. COULD
SEE BRIEF DROPS IN CEILINGS INTO MVFR RANGE, BUT IFR OR LESS WITH
STRONGER STORMS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EDT /6 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-055>057-067.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EDT /6 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM....EBW
AVIATION.....MJ
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